Ukraine-Russia territorial swap would signal real progress in peace talks

1. Even if Russia is severely exhausted, a ceasefire is impossible until the “liberation” of Kursk—its aggression-fueled domestic audience simply wouldn’t accept it.

2. Since Russia has been unable to dislodge Ukrainian forces from Kursk for six months, it is unlikely to do so quickly, while Trump needs rapid results measured in days, not months.

3. The only swift way to de-occupy Kursk is through a territorial exchange: Ukrainian troops withdraw from Kursk, while Russian forces withdraw from a comparable occupied area in Ukraine.

4. Since the Russian constitution now includes four Ukrainian regions, there is no legal way for a Russian official to order troop withdrawal from the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, or Luhansk regions.

5. The exchange of captured territories is only possible between Kursk and some district in the Kharkiv region.

6. Only the fact of exchanging Kursk territories for Kharkiv would indicate that both sides are moving along a real negotiation track, and immediately after such an exchange, a swift and demonstrative ceasefire along the entire front line would be possible.

7. Until then, all “progress” in peaceful settlement is merely verbal formulations unrelated to the reality on the ground.

8. The ultimate guarantor of peace on Ukrainian soil—now and always—is the Ukrainian Armed Forces, so we applaud diplomatic progress and continue to support the army.

P.S. I am unable to analyze events in the Kursk region from a military strategy perspective, but I can assess them from a communications standpoint: a Ukrainian withdrawal under fire would not be perceived in Ukraine as a voluntary retreat or surrender, while in Russia, it could be framed as a victorious operation to be fed to its domestic audience. This could also be part of a peace process arrangement—we’ll simply learn about it in 20 years.

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About the author: Andrii Liubka, writer.

The editorial team does not always share the views expressed by blog authors.