Ukraine needs air defense systems to protect its defense industry - ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports.

Ukrainian officials have expressed their intentions to expand Ukraine's defense industry at home and abroad since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion.

The ISW estimates that the development of the defense industrial base could eventually allow Ukraine to maintain its defense against Russia and meet long-term national security needs with a significant reduction in foreign military aid. But for now, this requires Western air defense.

US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said that providing Ukraine with Western air defense equipment will be a critical element of Ukraine's ability to defend its defense industry, which in turn will reduce Ukraine's dependence on Western aid, and especially US.aid to Ukraine in the long run.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently emphasized that Ukraine cannot mitigate the lack of sufficient air defense systems and that only Western-provided air defense systems, namely Patriot systems, allow Ukraine to defend Ukraine against the intensified Russia strike campaign.

ISW continues to assess that the United States will not need to send Ukraine large security assistance packages indefinitely if Ukraine can sufficiently expand its defense industrial capacity. But providing air defense systems and missiles to Ukraine is critical to Ukraine's ability to defend its energy infrastructure and its defense industry from Russian attacks.

• On April 4, in Brussels, Dmytro Kuleba said that Germany had initiated a search for affordable Patriot air defense systems for Kyiv. His German counterpart, Annalena Baerbock, called for an urgent search for air defense systems for Ukraine in third countries, as "Germany's Patriot stocks are depleted."
• On April 11, Ukraine's Foreign Minister said that the country had found more than 100 available Patriots in the world and was seeking to obtain at least 7 such systems as soon as possible to protect the cities most affected by Russian attacks.
• On April 12, it was reported that Ukraine was negotiating to get two Patriot batteries and one Samp-T.