Ukraine strikes deep inside Russia targeting Shahed drone production facilities. Serhiy Zgurets' column

Russia's air attacks

In the past three days, Russia has launched three combined attacks on Ukraine using various types of missiles, both ballistic and cruise, as well as kamikaze drones like the Shahed and similar UAVs. All of this is part of a terror strategy aimed at wearing down civilian morale and damaging Ukraine’s economy.

At the same time, Ukraine is also carrying out long-range strikes on Russian defense facilities. On May 26, a strike hit a facility in Tatarstan, specifically a plant in Yelabuga, where Iranian-style Shahed drones are assembled.

Russia is upgrading its Shahed drones

It’s worth noting a few new details about Shahed drones coming from recent statistics and international media coverage, including The Economist. The data shows a rise in the number of Shahed drones and decoys Russia is using. I recall that the record number of drones launched in one attack was in February — 276 in total.

But that record has now been broken twice. During the night of May 25, 298 Shahed-type and other drones were launched over Ukraine. In another combined night attack on May 26, 355 Shahed drones were used — 288 of them were shot down. This points to both a growing number of attacks and ongoing improvements in the Shahed drones themselves.

The Economist also mentioned the use of Telegram bot channels to guide or adjust drone routes. That’s a bit overstated. Back in February, Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate reported that newer Shahed drones had a module allowing them to get coordinates via one-time-use Telegram bots, essentially sending back their own location. But that doesn’t mean the drones are controlled through Telegram or that they’re immune to electronic warfare. They can and should still be jammed.

Still, Russia is upgrading these systems, and our job is to find ways to stop them that actually work and don’t break the budget. Among those options are further development of electronic warfare tools and deploying Ukrainian air defense drones, which have already proven they can shoot down Shaheds. There’s even video of Ukrainian drones taking them down, the challenge now is scaling up the technology.

Situation on the front line: Kupiansk direction

Now to the front line, where Russian forces continue trying to wear down Ukrainian defenses, and Ukraine hits back in return.

Andriy Koval, commander of the unmanned systems battalion of the Bureviy Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine, says Russian troops keep trying to seize positions. Yesterday, fortunately, there's no active assaults — unlike last week, when they launched up to 10 attacks per day. Most of those involved small infantry groups using motorcycles or ATVs, without heavy equipment. These attacks are being pushed back using drones, artillery, and other weapons.

Ukraine Russia war live map, March 8-15, Photo: Espreso

According to Koval, Russian troops are increasingly using motorcycles. They’re harder to hit with FPV drones or artillery due to their speed and maneuverability. That’s why they’re now used widely. Small assault teams are also active. It’s the “green” season — dense foliage makes it harder to spot them. But drones with thermal imaging still allow Ukrainian soldiers to detect and stop these groups. As a result, all assaults are being repelled, and Russia hasn’t been able to break through Ukrainian positions.

Koval also explained what’s known as a “kill zone” — an area where Russian forces are hit by every available weapon: ammo dropped from Mavic drones, FPVs, large strike drones like Baba Yaga, plus artillery. It’s how the brigade eliminates Russian troops over a certain area and range. Ukrainian defenders can hit targets up to 15–20 km deep. If we have enough tech and drones, the kill zone can be expanded to strike enemy troops as they approach. It’s highly effective: during assaults, a variety of weapons are launched at once, wiping out enemy forces by all means available.

The commander noted that while Russia has more troops and gear, Ukraine has the edge in quality. Russia sends up a large number of drones, but most don’t hit their targets. They’re jammed by electronic warfare or shot down by air defenses. To keep up, Ukrainian forces must constantly improve drone quality and switch control frequencies to avoid Russian jamming and ensure the drones reach their targets.

In terms of effectiveness, Koval says around 30–40% of Ukrainian drones hit their mark, while for Russia it’s only about 10–15%. That’s because Russia uses crews from different units attacking from various directions, which affects coordination.

He also said that a key priority is targeting Russian drone pilots. These missions are planned and carried out daily. At the same time, protecting Ukrainian operators is crucial, and that includes proper camouflage and limiting movement to bad weather conditions. Ukrainian positions are shielded by electronic warfare tools and even pump-action shotguns to shoot down enemy drones. Operators on the ground have access to drones of different types, ranges, and payloads.

Just a reminder: the Bureviy Brigade of the National Guard is defending the Kupiansk direction. Russian forces have been trying to expand their foothold on the west bank of the Oskil River. While they’ve partly established a bridgehead, they can’t move further, mainly because they can’t get artillery across the river.

So, Ukrainian brigades are focused on hitting Russian troops trying to cross, and they’re suffering heavy losses. Today, the intensity of Russian activity in this area has dropped. They’re now focusing efforts near Pokrovsk and partly in the Sumy region.

Lyman direction

There’s another important section of the front — the Lyman direction — which needs to be viewed in the context of Russia’s push toward the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk area. This is one of the directions where Russian forces are also trying to pressure Ukraine’s defense lines.

Maksym Bilousov, head of the communications department of Ukraine's 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade, said the situation in the Lyman direction has been consistently tough for the past 6–7 months. Russian troops began actively storming Ukrainian positions early last autumn, and they’re still doing it now. Their tactic of advancing in small groups is more or less working and is used all the time. They almost don’t use armored vehicles, because in the zone covered by the 60th Brigade, equipment doesn’t last long. At the same time, they’re actively using MLRS, KABs, FPV drones, and Mavic drops. Basically, they’re using everything they’ve got.

Ukraine Russia war live map, May 10-17, Photo: Espreso

Bilousov noted that Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance is working constantly, so there’s a good understanding of Russian movements, and their radio communications are also being intercepted. The main requirement for Ukrainian defenders is to mask their positions, so Russian forces either can’t find them or have a hard time doing so. Now that the war is about 90% drone-based, it’s critical that Ukrainian positions aren’t visible from the sky. Electronic warfare is also key to disabling Russian drones. Observation posts used to be more relevant, but because of constant drone activity, these positions have become quite risky. Aerial reconnaissance allows troops to go underground, and when Russian infantry gets close to Ukrainian positions, they often miss the observation posts and are taken out. But after that, the position needs to be changed, because Russian drones may have spotted it too.

Bilousov said Russian forces keep trying new things. They even try ideas that seem completely illogical at first. One example is Russian troops trying assaults on motorcycles or using anti-drone cloaks. About a month ago, a prisoner of war said the Russians had formed a unit that moved only on all fours, never standing up. In drone footage, there was a group of slow-moving black rectangles. Naturally, they were all destroyed because nothing in nature looks like perfect rectangles, so it was obviously man-made. Ukrainian drone operators spot these things and take them out. Remote mining is also effective — invaders have repeatedly triggered the mines themselves. This innovation is helping save the lives of Ukrainian sappers.