Ukraine continues to fight on credit, says economist Pendzyn

Oleh Pendzyn, economist, member of the Economic Discussion Club shared his opinions on Espreso TV.

“Back in 2023, at his first press conference, Mr. Budanov said that Ukraine was fighting on credit. That’s true. We continue to fight on credit. If we don’t borrow money, we won’t be able to fully supply our army with weapons and ammunition. The state also won’t be able to meet its social obligations. I’ll give the figures quoted by the President of Ukraine. Ukraine’s budget for next year is 2.8 trillion hryvnias. That is the revenue side of the budget and these funds go to security and defense. That’s more than $60 billion. Ukraine needs $120 billion to fight. So we have to borrow roughly another $60 billion for next year. And this isn’t about money — American weapons worth that amount will come to us,” Pendzyn explained.

The economist noted that the main problem is not the size of the national debt, but the economy’s ability to pay the interest on it. In fact, the national debt is covered through new borrowings.

“Additionally, we need $45 billion to fulfill the state’s social obligations. The good news is that of this $45 billion, over $30 billion are carryover funds from this year. This is the arithmetic we are looking at for next year. We must clearly understand that this situation has persisted for more than one year. In 2023 and 2024, 40% of Ukraine's budget was borrowed. Today, Ukrainian state-guaranteed debt is virtually equal to GDP. For comparison, in the U.S., the national debt is 120% of GDP, and in Japan, it is 150% of GDP. So, the issue is not the size of the debt, but the economy’s ability to pay the interest. As a rule, the debt is covered through new borrowings,” he concluded.

• Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko announced the adoption of the draft State Budget for 2026, which has already been submitted for consideration by the Verkhovna Rada. The document prioritizes security, defense, and social support for citizens during wartime.