Two old men on wire: How Putin outmaneuvered Trump

The second clear sign of the Russian dictator’s peaceful intentions came an hour after the call, when Russia launched strikes on Ukraine.  

Judging by the brief comments from the head of the White House, Trump deep down understands that he was sent off with promises of quick and successful peace. So, he now has to say that the promise of peace in Ukraine within 24 hours was just sarcasm. I predict that in some time, a real temporary ceasefire in Ukraine will be handled by General Keith Kellogg and perhaps the only professional politician in Trump’s team—Secretary of State Rubio. Clearly, Rubio has found a foothold in this zoo of sycophants—former special forces veteran Mike Waltz.  

Putin once again reiterated Russia’s demands for a 30-day full ceasefire: “…The key condition to prevent escalation and politically-diplomatic resolution of the conflict must be the complete cessation of foreign military assistance and the provision of intelligence to Kyiv.”  

Additionally, for a full 30-day ceasefire, Putin demands “effective control over a potential ceasefire along the entire front line, the necessity to halt forced mobilization in Ukraine, and the rearming of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Is it worth mentioning that this card was already played out during the meeting of the Ukrainian delegation in Jeddah? Putin’s demands for a full-scale ceasefire are unacceptable. And now, they are unacceptable not only for Ukraine but also for the United States. The initial suspensions of intelligence sharing as a lesson for Zelenskyy cost Washington doubts from its allies: "Should we fully depend on American weapons?" Some, like Germany, even started questioning whether it’s wise to rely solely on the F-35 for sky defense. The White House understands all of this very well. And they cannot agree to Putin’s military demands, as it could deliver a hard blow to the reliability of U.S. weapon supplies to those who purchase them for exorbitant amounts.  

Through his phone conversations, Putin confirmed that Russia has one strategy — to buy time, while simultaneously offering Trump a joint Iranian case. Moreover, a group of Russian negotiators in Riyadh will persistently offer American businessmen a package of business deals.  

This is a problem for Trump, as such negotiations partly ruin the dreams of a blitz peace — I think everyone already understands that victorious picnics in May will not happen. But the tempting offers with Iran and Siberian minerals make immediate sanctions on oil exports somewhat difficult. Putin is playing for time, and Trump has been forced to play along. Very soon, agreements about agreements will continue — there will be an attempt to meet once again with delegations in the Middle East. Putin’s plan is to destabilize the situation inside Ukraine and disrupt any constructive effort we have with the Americans. The Kremlin is confident that Trump is their friend and will pressure the weak Zelensky. But the U.S. only loves itself, and the noose is for both — for Russia as well.

Ordinary Ukrainians need to filter the information they receive. The discussions about Trump recognizing Crimea as Russian turned out to be a fake. Donald Trump is a populist and a narcissist, but the Crimea Declaration rejecting Crimea as Russian was issued during his administration. 

The State Department under Secretary of State Mike Pompeo compared the Crimea Declaration to the Welles Declaration, which in 1940 condemned the Soviet Union's occupation of the Baltic States and established the non-recognition of the annexation. The occupation of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia lasted more than 50 years after the Welles Declaration was passed. So, even Trump today wouldn’t have shaken that stance. Similarly, the statements about the U.S. being willing to allow Russia into Odesa to take control of our main port were also fake. Sorry, but Russia, in its current phase of the war, has not achieved any victory worthy of such a big gift.

Putin is stalling to fight against future decisions that will benefit Ukraine. Here, a firm "no" to Russia’s demands on the placement of Western peacekeepers is clear. Even if those British and French troops stand on the third line, their presence in Ukraine would automatically recognize us as part of the Western world and block Russia’s agenda of diluting our borders. 

Trump will gradually come to understand that his further actions regarding Ukraine will determine his fate as president. Changing the subject to something more attention-grabbing won’t work for now. But here, Ukraine's task is to prevent the topic of our war from being overshadowed by Gaza, the Houthis, and cheap eggs. 

While Trump plays at being a peacemaker, we need to quickly build relations with Rubio and Waltz. Because these two will take control of the country when the old man heads home to play golf.

Exclusively for Espreso