Trump’s peace initiative nears its end

What’s strange is that it took the Trump administration four months to figure this out. And frankly, during those four months, the Americans did more than enough to give Putin reason to believe in his own victory.

The key question now is: What will the Americans do next? It’s hard to keep talking about “great progress in negotiations” when one side continues killing children every day and randomly launching bombs and missiles at civilian cities. A social media post predicting “Russia’s collapse” is not enough—especially when Moscow is planning to take all of Ukraine. The time for words has passed. Action is now required.

It’s already clear that Trump’s peace initiative is nearing its end. Over these four months, Putin has only grown more convinced that he is strong and the West is weak. He escalates, raises the stakes—and the West struggles to even agree on sanctions.

The American president began boldly and confidently, but is now ending up in the same position of disrespect as his predecessor. And in the gangster logic of the Kremlin, you don’t negotiate with weaklings. You destroy them. 

There’s a high probability that after this first failed Trump peace initiative, there won’t be the second one. Not from Trump. Not from anyone. The Americans have seen enough to stay out of it. The Europeans tried their hand in 2022—and failed. Now, Putin is rejecting Trump’s proposals and, through Lavrov, once again voicing Russia’s maximalist demands—just a classic move to raise the stakes in talks with the U.S.

The U.S. must now either respond by raising its own stakes, or effectively accept defeat to Putin. But doing so would erase the last red lines and open the path to a globalized war and wider participation. Because if it worked with Ukraine—what’s to stop them from trying the same with Poland, Lithuania, or Germany?

European capitals understand this all too well. Under this scenario, sooner or later—and inevitably—Europe will become a full-fledged participant in the war. Why else would Russia need new military bases near Finland and Estonia?

The U.S. understands it too. Because in that case, America’s role as a security guarantor to its allies begins to erode. The world will see U.S. weakness—and that will erase red lines elsewhere around the globe.

That’s why the Americans are unlikely to make any sudden moves. They won’t officially walk away from the negotiations—doing so would only cement their defeat. More likely, we’ll see a hybrid of Trump’s first-term approach and Biden’s strategy: de-escalating the war issue to a lower level of visibility, perhaps handing it off to someone like Marco Rubio—while for Trump himself, the war will simply be over.

Given how complex the American political system is, a deep consolidation around the idea of defeating Russia is also possible. And whoever leads that effort might just have a shot at becoming the next president. All options are still on the table.

Meanwhile, Europeans will continue ramping up their own defense and increasing military and financial support for Ukraine. Because the further this goes, the more likely it becomes that Shahed drones will start striking their cities too. That’s why the mantra “support Ukraine for as long as it takes” will be heard loudest from European leaders.

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About the author: Mykola Kniazhytskyi, journalist, Member of Parliament of Ukraine.

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