Will Donald Trump end Russia’s war or step away from process?

Since January 2025, Donald Trump has officially been running the United States, a country whose support is crucial for Ukraine’s victory in the war with Russia. 

Now the main question is whether Trump truly wants to end the war, and if so, at what cost? If not, what will his exit from the process look like?

"I’ll end the war in a day" – myth or scenario?

During his election campaign, Trump promised to end the war "in 24 hours". Now that he has all the levers of power, it’s time to test these words. But so far, we see not a diplomatic breakthrough but rather a pause — in support for Ukraine, military supplies, and clear signals to the Kremlin. This doesn’t look like an end to the war; it resembles a waiting game. Trump hopes that both sides will tire to such an extent that they’ll sign a deal favorable to him, where the U.S. acts as an arbitrator, not a party. But war is not a stock market deal, and Ukraine is not a pawn in someone else’s game.

The 'freeze' model instead of peace

The most likely scenario for Trump, in my view, is freezing the war. This means a ceasefire without resolving the causes of the conflict, without returning the occupied territories, and without security guarantees. That’s how it was in Korea. It could be the same in Ukraine. But the difference is that North Korea has no ambitions toward Seoul. Russia, however, has not abandoned its idea of destroying Ukrainian statehood. Trump has a political need to show that he "managed to negotiate with Putin".

"He doesn't need Ukraine's victory - he needs a picture of an agreement that he can present as his success. And therefore - compromises that will be painful for Kyiv."

Trump’s interest in Ukraine

Trump does not demonstrate direct antipathy toward Ukraine, but there’s no empathy either. To him, Ukraine is not a hero but a problem: costs, difficulties, the pressure from allies, and the media story that has dragged on. In his political worldview, America is what’s important — strong and independent. Everything else is secondary. If the war is draining U.S. resources, it needs to be "closed". And it doesn’t matter how. This attitude is reflected in practical actions as well. Washington has begun delaying the supply of new weapons. In Congress, Trump’s allies are promoting the idea of "conditional aid" — only for concessions on the front. And in Europe, voices are increasingly being heard calling for a "realistic peace."

Power position or escape?

Trump wants his peace initiative to be perceived as a position of strength. But in reality, it’s an attempt to escape. The U.S., according to Trump, should remove itself from global stability responsibility and hand the authority over to Europeans. In turn, they will start pressuring Ukraine. This is already happening. Signals from Berlin, Paris, and even Warsaw show: "If America steps out, we can’t do it." The Kremlin sees all this and pressures more.

"The paradox is that instead of ending the war, Trump's rhetoric only pushes Putin to continue the offensive — in the hope of a profitable pause."

What’s next?

Ukraine must be ready for a new type of pressure — not from Moscow, but from Washington. This pressure will be cleverly disguised as "the desire for peace". We will be persuaded that "half a victory is still a lot", that "a bad peace is better than a good war", and that "the world is tired". But in this situation, what matters for us is understanding one thing: our war is not about Trump, not about Putin, and not even about Biden. It’s about us. And only we will decide what constitutes the end of the war and what marks its new phase.

Esprecially for Espreso

About the author: Yuriy Fizer, journalist, TV host, and international analyst.

The editorial team does not always share the views expressed by the authors of blogs.