Trump begins threatening Putin

In a tweet that appeared on social networks, Donald Trump emphasized that based on the fact that Russia is now literally crushing Ukraine on the battlefield, he is seriously considering the possibility of introducing large-scale banking sanctions, other sanctions and tariffs against Russia, which will be in effect until a ceasefire and a final peace agreement are reached.

Donald Trump is addressing Russia and Ukraine: “Sit down at the negotiating table right now, before it’s too late.” Thus, in fact, we have reached this situation, which I have repeatedly spoken about. And which was supposed to demonstrate that Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin had no real agreements. And there was confidence that the American president would be able to force the Russian to agree to a ceasefire.

Let me remind you that in the first legalized telephone conversation between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, the American president suggested that the Russians agree to a ceasefire in the Russian-Ukrainian war, obviously in order to later drag Putin into a long-term negotiation process, but without hostilities.

Perhaps this is exactly the proposal that was made during the meeting of American and Russian officials in Riyadh. However, after these negotiations, the Kremlin did not deviate one iota from its vision of how the Russian-Ukrainian war should end. Both Putin and other Russian government officials have repeatedly emphasized that they are categorically against a ceasefire. That they are supporters of achieving a so-called comprehensive peace, which can begin only after the so-called root causes of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict are eliminated.

And we understand very well, friends, that for Putin and his entourage, the main root cause of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is the very fact of the existence of the Ukrainian state.

Thus, today Donald Trump has the consent of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and to possible participation in peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, and to the signing of an agreement on minerals, but there is no consent from the Kremlin to his participation in the peace process.

And thus, the meeting between American and Ukrainian officials, which will take place in Jeddah next week, will be more an expression of mutual wishes about what the peace process should look like than real progress towards this peace process. Because the absence of the Russian side at such a meeting will once again emphasize that the United States has no opportunity to drag Putin into the negotiation process.

And so Trump turns to Putin and tells him: "I have already denied Ukraine military assistance and intelligence information. Your troops are beginning to defeat the Ukrainian army on the battlefield, and even in such a situation you do not appreciate my loyalty and do not agree to peace negotiations. So instead of some loyal actions I will start a new sanctions policy."

And by the way, it is obvious that this was already being discussed in Washington, because even before Donald Trump's statement, his Minister of Finance made a similar statement, who did not rule out serious sanctions against the Russian Federation and emphasized that the sanctions of the previous administration were pathetic in their level.

I am absolutely confident that Vladimir Putin, in accordance with his own political style of not doing anything under pressure, will either ignore this post by Donald Trump, or will come up with a harsh reaction to the words of the American president. However, we can say that he already answered Donald Trump in absentia just yesterday, when during a meeting with relatives of the participants in the so-called anti-terrorist operation emphasized that Russia will not yield to anyone in anything.

But then the following question arises: what should Donald Trump do next? Continue his line of denying Ukraine military assistance and intelligence information; introduce new sanctions against the Russian Federation; or simply try to negotiate with Putin again. This will be absolutely futile and convince him of the need to participate in the negotiation process.

Then we will find out what the real economic instruments of the United States are, with the help of which the new American administration can act more effectively than its predecessors. To what extent can the President of the Russian Federation be frightened by these threats of new large-scale sanctions, or will he be ready to check how these large-scale sanctions will affect his economy, and whether he will be able to stand up again with the help of the countries of the so-called global south.

First of all, of course, with the help of the People's Republic of China, which in turn is now entering a serious period of confrontation with the United States. And, perhaps, it will also be interested in demonstrating that American threats do not affect its allies, and together China and Russia can overcome any economic instruments of pressure from the United States and other Western countries.

This moment of truth, which we have repeatedly spoken about since the first day when Donald Trump appeared in the White House and began to talk about the Russian-Ukrainian negotiation process, is approaching faster than we thought.

No, there is no negotiation process between Russia and Ukraine. There are no agreements between the United States and Russia. Putin is openly ignoring Trump and has his own views on how the negotiation process between the United States and Russia will develop, apparently trying to drag Donald Trump into meetings and negotiations against the backdrop of continued hostilities.

And as we can see, Donald Trump does not want this, because he understands the risks to his own reputation and the reputation of the United States of America.

And now it will be checked what level of pressure the new American president is ready to apply to Russia. That is, will it be just words or real pressure. And to what extent will this pressure really affect the Russian economy and force Putin to change his attitude towards the peace process.

Or we may find ourselves in a long-term war, which we are in now, only it will continue for some time. Until the moment when Russia's economic and demographic potential is exhausted. Because, as I have repeatedly said, this is the real condition for ending the Russian-Ukrainian war. There are no other conditions.

And if Putin is now in a really difficult economic situation, he will be forced to come to an agreement with America, no matter how unpleasant it may be for him. However, again, this will not happen immediately, but when Putin can pretend that he is making such agreements out of good will, and not under pressure from the American president. Because in such a situation, he will look like a man who has lost the foreign policy battle with the United States.

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About the author: Vitaliy Portnikov, journalist, laureate of Ukraine’s Shevchenko National Priz.

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