Trump calls Putin: on the way to right decisions

Today, Donald Trump held a phone conversation with Putin regarding peace in Ukraine and the status of negotiations. According to Trump, the purpose of the call was to "figure out what is happening." This call takes place amid Russia's clear unwillingness to end the war and disregard for Trump's peace initiatives. However, Trump continues to cling to the illusory reality that he can personally "resolve everything" with Putin.

"The main issue is that Putin will not agree to a ceasefire until the risks of continuing the war in his mind are less than the risks of ending it."

Currently, Russia is deteriorating economically and militarily, and its ability to wage war is diminishing. This situation is akin to cirrhosis of the liver from chronic alcoholism – an illusory balance while the viability is constantly undermined. However, for Putin, exiting the war is politically and socially too risky: it would undermine the trust of even the most hawkish Russians ("what kind of tsar are you if you can't effectively lead a war?") and further polarize and atomize Russian society and elites, where conflicting groups are growing stronger and less concerned with the Kremlin.

"The only way to make Putin's regime stop is to threaten it with a significant reduction in Russia’s military and economic power, so he believes that continuing the war brings more risks than ending it."

Meanwhile, Europeans, responsible members of the U.S. administration, and Ukraine continue to push Trump into a corner, forcing him to acknowledge the unpleasant reality.

We benefit from the fact that the Russians underestimated Ukraine’s subjectivity and Europe’s readiness to oppose Trump and coordinate common positions. If, in February 2025, the U.S. and Russia wanted to exclude Europeans from the negotiation process, now the EU, the UK, and Ukraine are forming a unified position and applying pressure on the U.S. through various channels.

Trump himself sympathizes with Putin’s political style, viewing it as a model to follow. His call to Putin today is essentially his last attempt to hold on to his worldview, demonstrate his "greatness," and prove that he can "solve everything." The first step toward peace, which Europe and rational people within Trump’s circle insist on, is a comprehensive ceasefire — this should be the subject of discussion.

If Putin refuses, Trump will have three options: try again to shift the blame to us (which will probably not work for long), shift the problem to Europe, or finally agree to sanctions against Russia. Understanding that Putin respects only strength is gradually maturing even in his specific and fragmented consciousness, although he will cling to the possibility of avoiding sanctions until the last minute. For this last decision, they are "laying down the straw," explaining that sanctions are demanded by Congress and they (the White House) are barely restraining them.

The main tactical task for Ukraine and its partners is to try to preserve Euro-Atlantic unity and push Trump for decisive actions, including adhering to his promise of "peace through strength." Appealing to his enormous ego and legacy (as Zelenskyy did in Rome, saying that any deal with Putin would tarnish Trump’s legacy) is part of this complex diplomatic effort. Even small concessions from Trump, such as allowing arms sales or not blocking aid, already represent progress.

The strategic task for Ukraine and Europe is not just to end the war, but to prevent Russia from waging wars on the continent in the future.

The recent diplomatic period has been quite positive: Ukraine is demonstrating itself as a constructive party, there are situational partners in Trump’s administration, and military and financial support from Europe continues dynamically. EU sanctions are expected with certainty, U.S. sanctions are quite likely, but this will be a matter of weeks, not days. Cautious optimism is justified, but expectations from today’s Trump-Putin call should not be overblown. We should expect cringe-worthy tweets about "friend Vladimir," but this trend is unlikely to change.

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About the author: Yurii Bohdanov, publicist, strategic communications specialist in business, public administration, and politics.

The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of blogs.