Situation in Novopavlivka sector likely to stabilize soon, military expert Zgurets says

This was stated on Espreso by Serhiy Zgurets, director of the information and consulting company Defense Express.

“When we look at the results of fighting along the front line, especially over the past month, there are nuances I’d like to highlight. According to DeepState, last month the enemy achieved one of its largest advances, capturing 556 square kilometers. But there are details to consider: Finnish analysts from Black Bird Group, who also track Russian advances, say June was less productive for the enemy than May. The conclusions from DeepState sometimes didn’t fully reflect timely changes on the map, and in fact, the enemy advanced less in June than in May,” he said.

In Zgurets’ view, this overall suggests that the defensive line held by Ukrainian forces remains effectively defended.

“Among the most urgent and risky sectors now is indeed the Novopavlivka direction, where the enemy continues trying to advance. Russia’s main efforts are focused on the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka sectors. There are certain challenges on this front related to holding the defensive line, shifts in zones of responsibility, creating a corps structure, new commanders, and rotations of brigades. This has had an impact, but the situation will soon stabilize due to other factors that will become clear,” the expert added.

He also noted an attempt by the enemy to step up activity in the north.

“Today there was information that the enemy captured the settlement of Milove, in northern Kharkiv region — just 200 meters from the Ukrainian-Russian border. This is the area in front of our defensive line, which is guarded by border guards and territorial defense units. 

I think this is the enemy’s attempt to destabilize our defense in this area. Given that the enemy is trying to expand its foothold on the west bank of the Oskil River, I believe these efforts are interconnected. We will see how our security forces respond to the enemy’s attempt to gain a foothold in a new sector in the north of our country. I think responses will be found quickly and will be adequate,” Zgurets concluded.