Russia's nuclear arsenal may decay in decades, offering 'best outcome for humanity' — expert

Oleksii Izhak, an expert at the National Institute for Strategic Studies and co-founder of the Defense Information Concern, spoke to Espreso about the vulnerability of Russia’s nuclear triad and the threats of nuclear escalation.

After the success of the Spider's Web operation, Russia claims there is a threat to its nuclear security.

“This is a chronic Russian issue of nuclear escalation. In Russia, it is often interpreted as a right to immunity from punishment for aggression. The Russian nuclear doctrine, as publicly stated and enshrined in Presidential Decree No. 355 of June 2, 2020, and updated in November 2024, provides an extremely broad list of grounds for the use of nuclear weapons. Such vague wording creates the impression that Russia reserves the right to nuclear escalation in almost any critical battlefield situation,” the expert notes.

However, according to him, in practice, this maximalist interpretation loses its meaning.

“The reality of war proves that nuclear threats are convincing only when it comes to exceptional circumstances — a threat to the very existence of the state. This is a generally recognized criterion, adhered to by other nuclear states and accepted by most non-nuclear countries. Otherwise, the global nuclear order collapses. And it is unlikely that Russia is ready, or that other nuclear states would allow it, to go beyond these limits,” adds Oleksii Izhak. 

He points out that Moscow systematically involves components of its nuclear forces in the war against Ukraine. Russian dual-use systems — Iskander-M, Iskander-K, Kinzhal, Su-24M, Su-34, Tu-22M3 — are regularly used by Russia in conventional armament for strikes against Ukraine. Therefore, in such cases, Russia should not expect that their potentially nuclear status will provide them with any immunity. “Ukraine systematically destroys and will continue to destroy these systems on the battlefield, and for the West, there is no argument that could refute the logic of Ukraine’s actions,” says Izhak.

According to him, Russia itself took a step in this dangerous direction and actively exploited it in public rhetoric until the vulnerability of nuclear platforms to new means of destruction became apparent. Moreover, not only strategic bombers, which turned out to be large unprotected targets, are vulnerable. Mobile complexes like Topol-M and Yars are also barely protected.

“For decades, Russia justified its opposition to NATO expansion, among other things, with the argument that non-nuclear missile systems approaching its nuclear forces allegedly undermined their survivability and strategic balance. And now, the demonstrated vulnerability of Russia’s nuclear triad in the war against Ukraine renders this argument meaningless. Whether NATO expands or not, the new vulnerability of Russia’s nuclear forces will not disappear,” the expert believes.

At the same time, if Russia changes its policy, stops its aggression against Ukraine, and if the Russian nuclear triad no longer poses a threat to others, no one will touch it. Then, like many other Soviet arsenals, it will simply rot away over several decades. “This would be the best outcome for humanity,” Oleksii Izhak concludes.