Russia’s civil aircraft fleet could halve by 2026 due to spare parts shortage — intelligence

Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service reported the information.

This trend is highlighted by a recent agreement between cargo airline Volga-Dnepr and Aeroflot. Under the deal, Aeroflot will receive eight Boeing aircraft exclusively for dismantling to supply spare parts for its existing fleet. Six Boeing 737-800BCF cargo planes and two Boeing 747-400s will be transferred to Aeroflot subsidiaries Pobeda and Rossiya under financial leases, in a transaction valued at around $130 million and financed by the Russian National Welfare Fund.

At the start of 2022, Russia operated approximately 1,500–1,800 Western-made civil aircraft. Sanctions have since blocked access to new aircraft and original spare parts, forcing Russian airlines to either decommission planes, purchase components via unofficial channels without quality guarantees, or dismantle serviceable aircraft for short-term repairs.

“This agreement between Volga-Dnepr and Aeroflot is unprecedented in Russia’s civil aviation market. A passenger carrier acquiring cargo aircraft solely for dismantling is a first. In the medium term, this will accelerate fleet reductions, raise transportation costs, and degrade the overall quality of civil aviation in Russia,” the report said.

If current conditions persist, intelligence sources estimate that the Russian fleet could more than halve by 2026.