Russians fuel Trump's 'Nobel ambitions'

All last week, the Russians were running an information campaign, talking about how they’re ready to fight forever and about new regions they plan to take. News from the front was pretty bleak, and all this propaganda clearly aimed to sway our partners to push Ukraine toward a bad peace deal instead of a defeat. But the attack on the airfields canceled all that out. Ukraine showed once again that Russia can and should be hit.

"So the negotiations happened in a different atmosphere, even though the Russians can't change anything in substance. And that matters too. These talks are just a show for Trump. But with the Russians toning down the bravado, Trump’s usual stream of nonsense about having no way to end the war also takes a hit."

Another new angle: this week, the U.S. Senate is finally set to start considering Lindsey Graham’s bill on 500% tariffs as secondary sanctions for using Russian oil. Sure, for now, it’s just diplomatic pressure. But the U.S. is clearly moving toward confrontation and toward stepping up support for Ukraine.

The Russians have their own game. Besides staging a peace show for Trump to paint themselves as pro-diplomacy and us as the problem, they’re clearly buying time. Notice how they didn’t publish any negotiation proposals in advance. Even though they shout their demands all the time, this time they kept quiet because they’re stalling. If they had officially put their real conditions on the table — four regions, demilitarization, and denazification — then the talks would’ve lost any point right away.

In Istanbul, they tried again to buy time through a prisoner swap. Instead of discussing real terms for ending the war, they settled on an exchange just to grab another week or two. That’s their goal. As long as the negotiations drag on, Trump holds back from taking a hardline stance, still hoping for his shot at the Nobel Peace Prize.

I think the Russians will try everything to stretch out the talks, hoping they can grab more territory and betting that the front will collapse. That’s why the strike on their airfields at least shook that belief.

Even though the situation is close to a deadlock. All of this is important. The war is in its final rounds, and like in sports, it’ll come down to morale and willpower. We got a boost in morale, the Russians got the opposite. 

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About the author. Viktor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst and publicist.

The editorial staff does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.