Russian advance slows near Avdiivka after swift gains – NYT

This was reported by The New York Times.

The article reveals that, following the capture of Avdiivka by the Russian army three weeks ago, concerns arose among Ukraine and its allies regarding the potential for Russian momentum. Fears were of a swift advance through crucial nodes and populated regions. Contrary to expectations, after initial successes, Russian advances halted around three nearby villages.

Military experts attribute the slowdown to unfavorable terrain, the exhaustion of Russian forces from prolonged engagement, and the presence of the Ukrainian army, which has reinforced the defense in the area.

The author underscores that Russia still maintains the initiative on the battlefield, with military analysts suggesting that Russian forces could breach Ukrainian defense lines, particularly noting the absence of American military assistance.

Presently, the conflict has settled into a stalemate resembling the inconclusive back-and-forth typical of front-line battles over the past year.

“The capture of Avdiivka has not led to the collapse of Ukrainian lines, the possibility for the Russians to move onto open ground or even to make major gains,” said Thibault Fouillet, the deputy director of the Institute for Strategic and Defense Studies, a French research center. “There’s no decisive action or breakthrough.”

Over the last 10 days, Russia has gained slightly more than a square kilometer of land, engaging in battles in Berdychi, Orlivka, and Tonenke.

Russian forces “seem to be attempting to push forward using small infantry assault groups, but are being decimated in the relatively open terrain west of Avdiivka,” said Pasi Paroinen, an analyst with the Black Bird Group, a Finland-based open-source community.

Experts highlight the advantage the Ukrainian forces derive from the terrain of the Donetsk region. Ukrainian units, positioned on high ground in villages, can more effectively target Russian soldiers attacking across open fields.

The New York Times underscores that if Russian forces manage to capture the three villages, their next moves are uncertain given the challenging terrain, characterized by hills and water bodies, impeding further progress.

• Recent reports indicate that Russian occupying forces in the Avdiivka area have enhanced tactical capabilities and employed tactical surprise in recent weeks.