Russia won’t launch distinct summer offensive – Center for Global Studies Strategy XXI

He shared his opinions with Espreso TV.

“There’s a lot of talk about the mythical summer offensive of the Russian army, that the enemy is counting on it. But there won’t be a separate offensive in the summer. The Russians are already conducting a strategic offensive operation. If we look back at December of last year, on December 16, an expanded meeting of the Russian Defense Ministry was held in Moscow, where the military reported on the past year’s results and plans for the coming year. At that meeting, both Putin and Defense Minister Belousov stated that in 2024, the Russians had seized the initiative from the Ukrainians, meaning they managed to turn the tide of the war. Therefore, the goal for 2025 is to ‘complete the defeat of the enemy, achieve the objectives of the special military operation, and end the war in victory,’” commented Pavlo Lakiychuk.

According to him, the strategic offensive operation launched by the Russian army in 2024 is still ongoing. “The battles near Pokrovsk, Tokmak, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and in the Lyman sector are all interconnected, as this is the only strategic operation aimed at capturing the northwestern part of Donbas, with Pokrovsk being key. In the north, the occupiers plan to cut off the Siversk salient, while in the southeast, they are shortening the front line to free up reserves for the offensive.”

“However, a strategic offensive operation of this scale is planned to last no more than three months. The first task is to break through the defense, which typically takes several weeks to a month. Once the defense is breached, reserves enter the operational space. The Russian offensive in February 2022 in southern Ukraine can be considered a successful strategic operation. The enemy has failed to achieve that in 2024 and 2025. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are steadfastly holding the line. Those enemy units and formations intended to break through the defense are wiped out after advancing just 100 meters. The second echelons of the occupiers, instead of moving into the operational space after the breakthrough, are trying to break through alongside the first. But the problem is that they cannot make a breakthrough. As a result, the enemy has fewer and fewer reserves,” the military expert summarized.

• Military expert and Ukrainian Armed Forces Colonel Vladyslav Selezniov, who served as spokesman for the General Staff from 2014 to 2017, said that during the Easter "truce," Russia was able to concentrate its forces in areas where Ukraine least expected it.