Russia transfers elite units to Pokrovsk despite catastrophic losses

According to information from the analytical department of the NGO Prava Sprava (Right Cause), the most combat-ready units of the Russian army have been redeployed from the Zaporizhzhia direction to the Pokrovsk direction. In particular, this includes the 76th Airborne Division. Meanwhile, the redeployment of marine infantry units appears to be a rotation of personnel.

At present, it is precisely the marine infantry units of the Russian armed forces that have suffered the most serious personnel losses. For example, the 810th Marine Infantry Brigade of the Russian forces has already replaced its full complement four times. In other words, the losses are catastrophic. Shortages, deaths, as well as the formation of new battalion tactical groups from unprepared personnel (even from ship crews) have reduced the brigade's combat capability.

Calling these units "marine infantry" is quite conditional, as they are now being staffed with former Russian convicts. That is, those individuals who, according to the decree of the Russian dictator, have the right to sign a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense directly in the courtroom. Therefore, Russians should forget about such a real formation as the marine infantry. 

"Today's Russian "marines" are analogous to "penal" units of the Russian army, such as Storm Z or Storm V."

At the same time, I would note that the very fact of redeploying units of the 76th Airborne Division indicates that the Russian forces have virtually no operational reserves. This is quite noteworthy. Moreover, despite having multiple advantages in manpower on the same Zaporizhzhia or Pokrovsk directions, the most combat-ready units of the Russian army are being used as operational reserves and assault units. The same marine infantry units. Although assault operations in urban conditions are not part of the marine infantry's functionality.

The situation is similar with airborne units, which are essentially being thrown into "meat assaults". Therefore, there is no reason to speak of the Russian forces having combat-ready units at this moment. Especially considering the number of personnel losses of the Russian forces. For example, in the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy's daily losses, according to the Ukrainian side, are around 500 people. About another 300 people are lost in the Zaporizhzhia direction.

Speaking specifically about Pokrovsk, it is worth refuting information from some foreign analysts about the alleged complete capture of the city by Russian forces. 

The Ukrainian Defense Forces are holding positions in Pokrovsk. Reports from some Western analysts that Russian forces have taken complete control of the city do not correspond to reality. Moreover, it should be noted that the Ukrainian Defense Forces are successfully destroying enemy personnel, specifically from the so-called assault groups. In doing so, the enemy is suffering heavy losses.

"According to information from the Special Operations Forces, despite massive shelling of industrial facilities and the enemy's attempts to establish a foothold there, SOF operators managed to successfully conduct special operations and destroy the Russian troops who had advanced to the planned point."

In addition, in the Pokrovsk direction, a tactical group from the 3rd SOF Regiment conducted direct action at an industrial facility. During aerial reconnaissance, operators detected Russian forces who had infiltrated the territory of a mine. After waiting for favorable weather conditions, the group set out to complete the mission. Everything then proceeded according to a clear scenario: contact — well-practiced actions in CQB format and elimination. The work was carried out with support from UAV crews with "eyes in the sky" and FPV.

"Assessing the importance of the Pokrovsk direction and the city of Pokrovsk in particular, it is worth noting that for the Russian dictator, this is now more of a political issue."

The Pokrovsk direction is currently characterized by the highest intensity. Moreover, Russian forces are performing not so much a military function, trying to advance forward, but rather a political one. The Russian dictator desperately needs to demonstrate tactical successes at the moment of intensification of the negotiation process. For this, it is necessary to capture such large cities as, for example, Pokrovsk or Myrnohrad. But, as we see, the situation is far from the Russian dictator's boastful statements that Pokrovsk is completely under the control of Russian forces.

Putin's statements about control over Pokrovsk are nothing more than an attempt to impress the domestic Russian audience and American President Donald Trump. 

Statements about the "capture" of Pokrovsk, the "encirclement" of Ukrainian forces — these are nothing more than information operations to create the public opinion the Kremlin needs. Moreover, all this works either exclusively for the Russian audience or for the American president. However, the latter is perfectly informed about the real nature of events in the Pokrovsk direction.

As an argument in favor of this conclusion, I will cite statistics on the intensity of combat clashes in the Pokrovsk area.

It is no coincidence that over the past week there has been a sharp increase in combat clashes: from 150 combat clashes per day, the number has grown to 270. At the same time, only during the last day has there been a decrease in the number of combat clashes along the entire length of the Russian-Ukrainian front.

For their part, Ukrainian defenders, despite unfavorable weather conditions that do not allow full use of the "drone wall" tactic in the Pokrovsk direction, have solved the logistics problem. By engaging special units of the Main Intelligence Directorate and Special Operations Forces. They are now effectively solving the task of expanding the logistical component of the Ukrainian army and maintaining firing points of Ukrainian defense.

The fact that a huge grouping of Russian forces numbering 150,000 people still cannot capture Pokrovsk, in my opinion, indicates that there are almost no fully combat-ready units remaining in it.

"Another quite noteworthy fact regarding the Pokrovsk direction. Of the 150,000 Russian troops concentrated there, there are no truly combat-ready units that could perform the functions of assault troops. And this is evidence of the low combat level and moral-psychological climate of the Russian army."

I would remind you that on December 2, the Russian dictator allegedly visited one of the command posts of the joint grouping of Russian forces, where he was reportedly briefed on the supposed capture of Pokrovsk in Donetsk region and Vovchansk in Kharkiv region.

For its part, the Ukrainian Armed Forces' General Staff stated that "boastful statements by the leadership of the aggressor country about the 'capture' of these settlements by the Russian army do not correspond to reality".

Specially for Espreso

About the author. Dmytro Sniehyriov, military expert, co-chair of the NGO Prava Sprava.

The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.