Russia will use freezing of war to work on its mistakes

Turkey offers a platform for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Switzerland has agreed to host a summit on Zelenskyy’s Peace Formula. China's special representative for Eurasian affairs, Li Hui, will revisit Russia, Ukraine, and European countries for the second round of shuttle diplomacy aimed at advancing a political resolution to the military conflict. At the end of February, Volodymyr Zelenskyy held talks with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is positioning himself as a potential mediator in negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, discussing the Ukrainian peace formula with him.

Does everyone understand what's happening? We're actively being pushed towards... No, not the end of the war, but its freeze. 

By the way, Russia is also being pushed. And not just by China, which needs to solve its economic problems, and Russia's war against Ukraine doesn't help. We also have a slew of problems to solve, but for many reasons, Zelenskyy and Yermak are not succeeding.

This is also the problem of the lack of funding from the US, the growing wave of corruption, and the loss of trust in the government against this backdrop, shell hunger, the absence of constructed defense lines despite Zelenskyy's promises, and a crisis in state management. And if we add the failure of mobilization in Ukraine and Zelenskyy's harsh distancing from it, it also prompts reflections on what the Presidential Office will do to address these issues.

So it seems that everything is heading towards a freeze. A temporary one. Because Russia will use the war freeze to work on its mistakes, increase its army, and rearm. And then the Chechnya scenario will repeat. For those who don't know, google the Khasavyurt Accords.

But freezing is still not the main option, although it is highly probable.

For those inclined to accuse me of sensationalism, falsehood, spreading panic, or promoting Russian propaganda, I want to recall that similar accusations were hurled when I predicted a full-scale invasion, a prolonged war, the lasting impact of the refugee problem, the removal of Zaluzhnyi by Zelenskyy, and...

Yes, every time they shouted, and in the end, I was right. So, there's no need to shout, but there is a need to think, analyze, and draw conclusions. And also to do everything to ensure that Ukraine does not lose overall. Although you can shout if you want. But it's not wise or effective.

About the author. Boryslav Bereza, public activist, former Member of Ukrainian Parliament

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.