Russia reduces frontline war spending, but terror against civilians to rise – Russian budget analysis

Illia Neskhodovskyi, head of the analytical department of the ANTS National Interests Protection Network, shared his opinions with Espreso TV.

“As for the Russian 2026 budget, the reduction in war expenditures reflects that the conflict has become cheaper to wage. The cost of launching a Shahed drone is significantly lower than that of a missile — over $1 million per missile compared to around $200,000 for a Shahed with maximum technical capabilities. Additionally, Russia is now deploying numerous decoy drones, which are even cheaper. This suggests that mass assaults on the front line are unlikely, but terror against the civilian population of Ukraine will continue, with missiles and UAVs striking across the country,” Neskhodovskyi explained.

The analyst also noted that domestic dissatisfaction with the war in Russia is growing, prompting the Kremlin to significantly increase spending on security forces in 2026.

“If we look at the significant increase in spending on Russia’s security forces in the 2026 budget, this is actually a telling sign. It indicates that dissatisfaction with the war within Russia is growing. The Kremlin feels this, which is why funding for the Russian Guard is being increased. Secondly, the simultaneous reduction in defense spending alongside the boost for security forces may suggest that the Kremlin fears the return of troops from the front lines, who could pose a domestic threat. It is also noteworthy that the 2026 budget plans a significant cut in social spending,” he added.