Russia plans to launch up to 500 drones at Ukraine at once — Ukrainian intel

Deputy Head of Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate, Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, said this in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.

According to him, Russia has significantly increased drone production, allowing them to launch between 150 and 200 drones in a single strike.

Russian forces also plan to increase the number of launch sites from which they will launch drones across Ukrainian territory. A representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate explained that, according to the calculations of the Russian command, if the plans for the first half of the year are implemented, they will be able to launch approximately 500 drones simultaneously.

Skibitskyi also explained why Russian drones fly over Ukraine every night.

"First of all, the Russians have significantly increased the production of various types of drones. Previously, in 2023 – early 2024, we only knew of the Shahed, then Geran-1, Geran-2, and that was it. Today, the range of these drones is so wide that it's not always possible to count them on one hand: Geran-1, Geran-2, Garpiya, Gerbera, Parody, and others. At the same time, the types of drones currently used include combat strike, reconnaissance, decoy drones, which are drones but without combat payloads, and imitation targets. Essentially, all of this overloads our air defense system. It's very difficult to distinguish between a drone carrying a warhead and one without," said the representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate.

He noted that the targets of Russian drone attacks have not changed. In particular, in the Russian documents from the fall of 2023, the main targets for the use of drones, cruise, and ballistic missiles were clearly defined, including the command system of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Defense Forces, all institutions related to aviation, and Ukrainian airfields.

"These also include the most critical elements of Ukraine’s infrastructure, including the energy system, gas transportation system – what we are observing now. And one of the priorities is our defense industry enterprises – where weapons are produced, where we have increased the production of many types of weapons, ammunition, drones, and systems," Skibitskyi noted.

According to him, the main priorities for Russian strikes remain the same.

"There have been strikes on the energy system, and Russia has somewhat changed its tactics and approaches, which it is now also using very actively. This approach involves clear identification and planning – so-called targeting – to achieve the greatest effect. Recently, the Ukrainian gas transportation system and gas fields have been suffering. Russia understands that this affects our population and our ability to meet gas needs. Recently, they have been trying to destroy this capability of Ukraine," said the deputy head of Ukrainian intelligence.

• In September 2024, Vladimir Putin announced plans to increase drone production nearly tenfold. According to Estonian intelligence, China is helping Russia produce military drones by supplying critically important Western components.