Russia may expand war zone to pressure Ukraine into territorial swap, expert says

This opinion was expressed on Espreso TV by military expert Dmytro Sniehyriov.

“I expect the theater of war to expand due to new territories. First and foremost, this will happen in Sumy and Kharkiv regions, and there will also be an attempt by the Russian army to break into Dnipropetrovsk region. The potential expansion of the combat zone will be used by Russia as military-political pressure on Ukraine’s leadership during the so-called Istanbul meetings on ending the war in Ukraine. This is what should be expected not only during the summer but also in autumn,” Sniehyriov said.

According to him, the latest phone conversation between Putin and Trump showed that the Kremlin chief clearly signals no intention to change the nature of combat operations until at least the intermediate goals of the so-called “special military operation” are achieved — that is, reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk region.

“To explain why I emphasize the expansion of the war zone: in Donetsk region, the occupiers will have to storm the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration — four major industrial cities: Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Kostyantynivka, and Druzhkivka. Recall that Bakhmut, which is much smaller, took nine months to storm, costing the enemy 100,000 casualties. 

And here we’re talking about storming an agglomeration of four cities with dense urban development, vast industrial zones, and our prepared defensive positions. Realizing that these cities could take years to capture, the Russian dictator may use the capture of parts of Sumy, Kharkiv, and possibly a breakthrough into Dnipropetrovsk region as leverage for such a ‘swap,’” the expert explained.

Sniehyriov concluded that this way, the invaders signal they could stop the offensive in Sumy or Kharkiv regions if Ukraine’s Defense Forces withdraw from controlled areas of Donetsk region. Such a scenario should not be ruled out.