Russia aims to cut Ukraine off from Black Sea — President's Office

Pavlo Palisa, Deputy Head of the Ukrainian President's Office, told Politico during a briefing in Washington.

Russia’s occupation plans through 2025

According to Ukrainian military intelligence, Russia aims to expand its occupied territories in eastern Ukraine this fall, seeking full control over Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as creating a "buffer zone" along the northern border with Russia.

Moscow’s goals for 2026 are even more ambitious. Palisa said the Kremlin wants to control the entire territory east of the Dnipro River, which effectively divides Ukraine in two. Additionally, Russia plans to capture southern regions, including Odesa and Mykolaiv, completely cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea.

“Unfortunately, they are not talking about peace. They are preparing for war,” Palisa emphasized during a meeting with a bipartisan group of U.S. senators.

Can Russia achieve its ambitious plans in Ukraine?

Although Moscow continues to advance slowly on the front, military analysts note that large territorial breakthroughs like those in early 2022 no longer occur. Russia is expected to intensify its offensive this summer, but maintaining such momentum until 2026 will be extremely difficult.

According to Western officials, Putin has not abandoned the main goals of the war: to force Ukraine into submission and achieve a new "grand bargain" with the West that will reshape the European security architecture.

"The Russians want to make a deal. But they don’t believe that this deal is primarily between them and the Ukrainians," said former CIA analyst George Beebe.

Kremlin ultimatums

During negotiations in Istanbul on June 2, Russia presented Ukraine with a memorandum outlining its position on ending the war, according to Politico. The demands include:

• International recognition of the annexation of Crimea and the occupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions;
• Ukraine’s renunciation of NATO membership;
• Limits on the size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

In Kyiv, these demands are called unacceptable and said to cross the "red lines" for Ukrainian statehood.

• The Ukrainian delegation held an analytical briefing on the current security, economic, and humanitarian situation in Ukraine for 23 senators from both parties in the U.S. Congress.