Putin’s visit to Kursk signals intent to seize Ukraine's Sumy – ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported the information in its latest assessment.

The analysts noted that shortly before Putin's visit to Kursk, the Russian delegation at the Istanbul talks had threatened to occupy Sumy.  ISW believes that Russia has territorial ambitions that go beyond the currently occupied territories, and Putin may try to use the military advance to put pressure on Ukraine during future negotiations.

Putin's visit to the Kursk region was also an attempt to show him as an active leader in wartime and to answer questions about further aggression. However, despite Russia's claims of control over the region, Ukrainian troops, according to Ukraine's General Staff, continue to fight in the Kursk region.

At the same time, analysts assessed Russia's ability to occupy Sumy. They noted that since the capture of Lysychansk in the Luhansk region, Russian forces have not managed to seize any other large settlement.

“Russian forces have not seized a Ukrainian city with a pre-war population greater than 100,000 since capturing Lysychansk, Luhansk Oblast in July 2022, but the seizure of Lysychansk was the result of a slow grinding effort that caused Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine to culminate in summer 2022, as opposed to a rapid and effective maneuver operation. Russian forces have since struggled to seize much smaller settlements in subsequent campaigns despite using larger numbers of forces, especially in eastern and northern Ukraine,” the experts noted.

“Ukrainian officials have also previously expressed doubt that Russian forces would be able to conduct an effective offensive operation to seize Sumy City,” ISW added.

• On May 21, the Kremlin announced Putin’s visit to the "liberated" Kursk region. The Center for Countering Disinformation noted that Russia is creating an illusion of control. “Avoiding mentions of the war and focusing on seemingly peaceful life is a Kremlin information tactic aimed at creating the illusion of stability and total control,” the Center explained.