Putin's strategy for 30-day ceasefire

It seems that Putin has still not made a final decision. On one hand, he fears Trump, but on the other, he desperately wants the war to continue.

1. After Jeddah, Putin lost his main negotiating leverage: he thought he could derail the talks through Ukraine. Following events in the Oval Office, the Russians likely believed Ukraine wouldn't get another chance. However, they miscalculated.

2. It’s important to note that Jeddah also undermines the main communication narrative of the Russians. Since November 2023, they’ve been pushing the message worldwide that peace-loving Russia wants peace, while the malicious puppet Ukraine, manipulated by the West, wants to continue the war. Now this argument no longer works, and the Russians have failed to come up with a new narrative — at least not yet.

3. It’s crucial that not only in Europe but also in the U.S., people are starting to say that Putin is manipulating Trump. Lindsay Graham even made a special statement saying that Putin would regret it if he truly decided to manipulate Trump. Appeals to Russia’s constitution regarding so-called new regions don’t work here. In the end, they don’t have much impact even on the passive majority of Russians (60 to 70% of Russians would consider it a victory if Ukrainians were pushed out of the Kursk region).

4. In Putin’s inner circle, as I understand it, a group of superhawks has formed, advocating for the continuation of the war and opposing any ceasefire. Their main argument is that they must not allow Trump to carry out a blitzkrieg. Additionally, they believe that for the U.S., China will remain the main enemy, and thus Washington will be forced to negotiate with Russia, even if they send Washington away now. These individuals also believe that China and the U.S. will not be able to reconcile behind Moscow’s back due to the existential nature of their contradictions, not merely situational ones. Moreover, they consider North Korea’s madness to be another trump card Russia could play.

5. Who are these superhawks? The head of Rostec, Chemezov, Putin's aides Ushakov (responsible for foreign policy) and Patrushev (despite losing his status as the top man in the security forces, he remained an influential player), Deputy Head of Putin’s Administration Kiriyenko (overseeing Rosatom and controlling all domestic policy), and the Kovalchuk brothers (responsible for various things, including gerontological research to extend life). The rest of Putin’s inner circle has taken a silent, wait-and-see stance.

6. I have always believed, and still do, that China will seek to play a role in the next round of peace negotiations. Their objective is to position themselves as an indispensable mediator, ensuring that without their involvement, a deadlock emerges—forcing others to seek their influence, including on North Korea. From this perspective, whether consciously or unconsciously, Russia’s superhawks are also advancing China’s strategy.

7. As for Russia, it is worth noting that a withdrawal from negotiations now would mean a real intensification of sanctions and a reduction in Russian oil exports by 10-15% per year. This would have catastrophic consequences, but not in 2025, rather in 2026-2027, if new agreements cannot be reached. Politically, it would also mean a narrowing of Putin’s role as an absolutist leader and a return to the state of 2022, when Putin briefly became the "collective Putin." However, this time he has every chance of not returning to the state of an absolute ruler.

8. It is also important to note that the Russians are launching a series of information attacks (I remind you, their problem is the loss of the overarching narrative about a peaceful Russia). Moreover, they are playing on several chessboards (in different parts of the world) simultaneously. What are these attacks?

• Zelenskyy must step down. Without Zelenskyy, peace will come immediately;
• Selling empty promises on resolving Iran's nuclear program and appeasing North Korea;
• Threats of World War III (nuclear war plus Oreshnik in Belarus);
• Attempts to "buy off" the Americans with a multibillion-dollar deal with Russia, which was already proposed in Riyadh;
• Efforts to stir up various sensitive topics in Ukraine.

In summary, it’s worth emphasizing again: Putin has not made a personal decision yet. I repeat, he is afraid of Trump. And he understands that if he refuses the deals, he enters a new round of internal power struggles within Russia. Most importantly, he cannot forget Tucker Carlson’s words, who revealed that under Biden, there was a plan to physically eliminate Putin. He could not perceive that as anything other than a direct threat. At the same time, he desperately wants to continue the war because he has achieved none of his goals - nor will he be able to.

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About the author. Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.