Putin will follow same old pattern in 2025 – Russian opposition expert Morozov

Morozov shared this opinion on Espreso TV.

"It seems to me that Putin is systematically walking the same well-trodden path. He’s done this before. Back in 2015-2016, when the heavy fighting in Donbas started to subside and Crimea was already annexed, Putin kept reinforcing his military presence in Donbas, reorganizing the occupied territories to his liking and so on. At the same time, he constantly talked about implementing the 'Minsk Agreements' or claimed, 'We see progress in this direction,'" Morozov commented.

According to him, Putin will use the same playbook in 2025. With one hand, he will build up troops to prepare for a potential strike, for example, on the Sumy region, where many are already noticing a buildup. With the other, he will claim, "Look, we are having fruitful negotiations with Donald Trump. We certainly want peace. We’re even ready to sign some version of Minsk-3, and we’re working on it." Putin will play this trick successfully, just as he has many times before.

"And this is a very bad scenario because Washington will get drawn in and won’t be able to shift to a pressure-based approach against the Kremlin. Meanwhile, military actions will continue, and escalation will follow. A paradox will emerge where the American administration, without any real strategy, enters negotiations while misjudging Putin’s so-called 'good intentions.' The biggest issue now is that Donald Trump genuinely seems to believe Putin is acting in good faith. Sure, you can negotiate with a thief, but you shouldn’t pretend his intentions are sincere. Yet this is exactly what Donald Trump is telling us about Vladimir Putin. No, this is all a bad game," Morozov warned.

He believes the real danger lies in the fact that the war will persist while negotiations take place, creating a destructive effect on Europe and the global alliance supporting Ukraine.

"If things follow this scenario, the 'coalition of the willing' that Keir Starmer spoke about will emerge. It will consist of countries that have actively supported Ukraine throughout the three years of war, with more joining in, forming a core group. No matter what happens with Donald Trump or the U.S. administration, a new political and military support structure for Ukraine has already taken shape in Europe. This is a crucial thing, but it will inevitably lead to tensions between the U.S. and Europe," Morozov concluded.

• On March 18, U.S. President Donald Trump held a two-hour phone conversation with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. They reportedly agreed that the path to peace should start with halting strikes on Ukraine’s energy sector. Meanwhile, Moscow demanded Ukraine suspend mobilization and stop rearming its military during a potential ceasefire.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy later stated that, following his talks with Donald Trump, Putin effectively rejected the proposal for a full ceasefire.