Putin needs peace for two reasons – ANTS network

Ilia Neskhodovskyi, Head of Analytical Department of ANTS network, told on Espreso TV.

"Firstly, Putin needs peace to lift the sanctions on oil sales, which would allow Russia to earn money and avoid logistical problems. Secondly, a ceasefire is necessary for them to replenish their forces, as Russia has spent significant resources on the war. They mobilized all reserves in December and January to maximize certain gains and show this to Trump. However, in reality, there has been no significant progress on the front. Therefore, a ceasefire for at least six months would allow the Russians to restore their strength, repair damaged equipment, and accumulate drones to continue shelling Ukraine," he said.

If the price of oil goes down, Russia will not be able to fully continue the war

Neskhodovskyi noted that in the final weeks of his term, Biden imposed powerful sanctions that came into effect on March 1. In particular, these sanctions target the navy. Russia is currently facing serious problems with the supply, sale, and logistics of its oil.

"The tariff wars initiated by Trump have led to a decrease in oil prices to 68-69 dollars per barrel, while Russian oil is trading at around 58 dollars per barrel. Russia's budget, which was calculated based on a price of 70 dollars per barrel, is missing out on billions of dollars in revenue. If this trend continues, and the tariff wars persist, with the price of Russian oil potentially falling to 40 dollars per barrel, Russia will have no financial resources left to fully continue the war," he noted.

Then the Russians might start printing rubles, rely more on human resources instead of equipment, and delay payments for participation in the war. However, this will limit their ability to purchase components and create problems for defense industry enterprises due to a payment crisis.

This statement explains that, in the event of continued financial strain, Russia may resort to printing more rubles, relying more on manpower than technology, and delaying payments to those involved in the war. However, such actions could severely affect their capacity to procure necessary parts and create significant challenges for defense industry enterprises, which would face a payment crisis.

On the other hand, there are discussions about the possible easing of sanctions by the U.S. against Russia. The analyst noted that the only action taken by Trump was the continuation of the sanctions imposed in 2014. However, these sanctions are minor, and their continuation does not pose significant problems for Russia.

"The G7 countries have decided to track the shadow fleet and strengthen sanctions in this area. The U.S. effectively vetoed the creation of the relevant commission. This is the first sign of real action. The second point is that all references to sanctions against Russia have been removed from official documents. These are concrete steps aimed at reducing pressure on Russia. Thus, the process begins with reducing pressure, halting the tracking of sanction violations, and may eventually lead to the gradual easing of sanctions. For us, this presents a serious threat that could have negative consequences. However, if the situation with oil develops in the right direction, the issue of sanctions will become secondary. The main question will be who will buy Russian oil and at what price," Neskhodovskyi concluded.

• Following reports that President Donald Trump had suspended military aid to Ukraine, oil prices continued to decline.