Putin likely to try to deceive Trump, restarting negotiations with unpredictable consequences – diplomat Bryza

A highly significant meeting took place in Jeddah. We know the formal details – Ukraine agreed to the U.S. proposal for a ceasefire. It's clear that Putin will negotiate until the very end. But we have a sense that rebuilding ties with the U.S. and Donald Trump may be within reach. What was discussed behind closed doors in Jeddah?

I think that the Trump administration remains unpredictable in how it is going to behave toward its allies and friends like Ukraine.  

But yes, the Ukrainian side and President Zelensky, by agreeing to that 30-day ceasefire, have shown goodwill, I think, in the eyes of President Trump. As a result, he restored U.S. military assistance and crucial intelligence sharing. This shows that President Trump is not playing a strategic game – he's playing a transactional one. He simply wants a deal.  

He is not focused on the theory of international relations. However, a positive element is that statements coming from the delegation that was in Riyadh, including Secretary Rubio and National Security Advisor Waltz, suggest that discussions are now taking place between the United States and Ukraine about security guarantees for Ukraine.  

There is no word yet on what those guarantees would look like or who would provide them, but this is a very positive development, as it allows for a de-escalation of severe tensions in U.S.-Ukrainian relations. Now, it is up to Putin to decide whether he wants to become the target of President Trump’s anger, additional tariffs, sanctions, or whatever else Trump may have in mind.

But the war in Ukraine is also a tool for Putin to expand his influence. It is not just about territory or his efforts to control Ukraine. This is a high-stakes game for him.  

Trump wants to strike a deal with Putin. He also wants to negotiate with Europe, leveraging Putin’s pressure on the continent, using war as a tool against the EU. We are witnessing the collapse of the post-World War II security order, and it is clear that there is no going back to the prewar, pre-Trump era.  

What do you think Donald Trump is aiming for?

As I was saying a moment ago, I don’t think Donald Trump really knows what he wants.  

Whether it’s in the case of Russia’s invasion and occupation of Ukraine or his economic policies, his tariff approach, we’ve seen him threaten new tariffs on Mexico and Canada almost daily, only to pull them back. It’s as if he doesn’t really have an overall strategy when it comes to trade policy.  

Similarly, with Ukraine, he is not operating according to the rules of the international system that the United States helped develop after the Second World War, as you mentioned. He is also not following any sort of strategic vision, as far as I can tell. He simply wants a deal because he believes he’s the world’s greatest dealmaker, while President Putin is engaged in a real life and death struggle.  

For Putin, this is a fight over the existence of Ukraine. As we all know, he wrote a few years ago that, in his mind, Ukraine does not constitute a real country, which is ridiculous. I think Putin also understands that after all the sacrifice, blood, and treasure Russia has wasted on this war, they cannot simply end it and pretend everything is fine just because Donald Trump asked him to end the war. So, I don’t think it’s possible for the ceasefire to last.  

I believe Putin will feel compelled to deceive Ukraine in some way, perhaps by making it appear as if Ukraine is to blame for ceasefire violations. However, I think it is both tactically and strategically wise for Ukraine to accept this 30-day ceasefire so that it does not become the target of Donald Trump’s anger and belligerent actions. Instead, I think that Putin and Russia will be.

What leverage does Donald Trump have that Joe Biden did not use? Trump, Putin, the EU, and China may each have their own grand strategy. But when Trump and Putin sit down to negotiate, the stakes become very real. Putin wants the occupation of Ukrainian territories officially recognized, and he is not willing to back down.  

What kind of leverage could Trump bring to the table? And is he prepared to use it?

I see. I don't think Donald Trump is thinking about Russia's invasion and occupation of Ukraine in that way. A traditional American foreign policy president would. I mean, Joe Biden had thoughts about that, I’m sure. Ronald Reagan obviously would have. George W. Bush would have. Had we ever gotten into such a terrible situation, Barack Obama would have. But Trump is different.  

Trump, I think, really does not care about the Russia-Ukraine war, about Russia's invasion and occupation of Ukraine. I really don't think he cares about Ukraine at all. I think all Trump wants is to be able to say he is a peacemaker and that he was the one, the only person on Earth who could broker a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia.  

So I think Trump is going to have to recalibrate his thinking soon because, as I was saying, I do not believe that President Putin will extend a 30-day ceasefire if he even accepts it. There will come a moment when Donald Trump is furious that Vladimir Putin has taken advantage of him because Putin was never serious about a ceasefire. At that point, Trump will have to rethink his approach.  

He will have to look for new instruments or tools to put pressure on Putin. First and foremost, I think there will be serious economic pressure that Trump will impose on Putin. But beyond that, I don’t believe President Trump has a framework for dealing with Russia's invasion of Ukraine.  

He thinks he is going to create peace through a ceasefire, and then that will be the end of the conflict as far as the U.S. is concerned. After that, it will be up to the European Commission and the European members of NATO to make the peace last and to develop security guarantees, with the U.S. no longer involved.

What if Putin rejects all of Trump’s proposals and says, “No, that’s not enough for me”? Ratcliffe, for example, might hear this in a conversation with Naryshkin, given that there are certain channels of communication between the Trump and Putin camps. At that point, Trump might simply say, “I’m out,” and shift his focus elsewhere, escalating tensions with Mexico, Canada, or even Denmark. Is there a concern that he might disengage from the issue entirely?

Oh, I have more than a concern. I think that is exactly what is going to happen, as I was saying in my last response. I think Donald Trump's foreign policy, such as it is, is very heavily focused on the Western Hemisphere.  

It is centered on projecting naval power to keep hostile countries out of the Western Hemisphere. It is like a new Monroe Doctrine. That is where Greenland fits in, not only because of its critical raw materials and minerals but also because of the sea lanes into the Arctic.  

That is where the Panama Canal obviously fits in because it is the Panama Canal, right? It is crucial for the transit of both military and civilian vessels into this sphere of influence that the United States wants for itself. It is an isolationist approach in which the United States protects itself, builds itself into a fortress economically, politically, and physically, and lets Europe take care of Europe. In Donald Trump’s mind, Ukraine is part of Europe.  

So I am very worried that he is going to try to, like in a castle, build walls around America and then pull up the ladder that provided access into the castle, leaving the rest of the world to fend for itself and fight for itself.  

That is a completely unrealistic view of course for any American president. He will change his approach at some point once the war, if the war in Ukraine escalates again, and if, as we were saying, President Putin betrays Donald Trump and makes him look like a fool.

Trump seems to be aiming for a win-win outcome. But that is impossible because Putin demands Ukraine’s surrender and he wants it in writing. After three years of full-scale war, we in Ukraine hope that Trump will take our side. But he is notoriously unpredictable. Today he might take issue with Zelensky’s attire, tomorrow it could be something else. His unpredictability is a serious risk.  

In your view, how would a formal agreement be structured? Would Ukraine sign documents with the US while the US negotiates separately with Russia? Or would the US step back and push Ukraine and Russia to the same negotiating table?

I don't expect anything to be on paper, to be honest. I expect there is the critical minerals agreement that has already been essentially agreed upon by Ukraine.  

Then, there will have to be more documents that define the investment criteria, rules, and operations of this fund that is going to be created. I think that will be the only document in existence or concluded between the United States and Ukraine. That reflects President Trump's approach to foreign policy, which is that everything is a business deal.  

When it comes to Russia, I have no way of foreseeing whether there could be any written agreement on paper with Russia or what it could look like. As you know, President Putin, a month or so ago, or a few weeks ago, offered U.S. investors, or the U.S. in general, access to Russia's critical raw materials. Nobody knows exactly what that means.  

But in terms of a grand peace agreement involving the U.S. and providing something on paper to Ukraine while also providing something on paper to Russia, I cannot foresee how that could happen or that it will happen. Again, I believe what is going to happen is that there will be a ceasefire, and Putin will either violate it or trick Ukraine into appearing as if it violated the ceasefire. Trump will become very angry, and the whole process will start over, and who knows what it will look like. But, as the Budapest Memorandum showed us, writing these agreements on paper does not mean anything, right?  

So, I don't think Trump has any desire to go down that route again and get solemn pledges from Russia, which Russia will never implement.  

For Ukraine's security, getting solid guarantees and the presence of soldiers from European allies is crucial. They need to be there on the ground, and over time, there must be provisions for U.S. support in terms of airlift and air defenses. President Trump has not yet said he is ready to do that, but I think the agreement will be in physical terms rather than a peace treaty of some sort.

Who would be able to guarantee a ceasefire on the ground? What kind of peacekeeping force could be deployed, given that a UN mandate would be required? Could there be an alternative mechanism that allows for the involvement of international organizations or individual countries?  

The second issue is strategic: security guarantees for Ukraine. Which countries could offer assurances that, after a ceasefire, Russia will not provoke another escalation or launch a new phase of aggression? In his ultimatum, Putin repeatedly stressed that Russia demands security guarantees, specifically the withdrawal of NATO forces from Central Europe.
I don't think it's time to even imagine that there will be peacekeepers on the ground on the front line between Russia and Ukraine because Russia, under Putin, will never accept that. As you were saying, Mr. Borkovskyi, Putin's objective is to occupy, control, or eliminate Ukraine as an independent sovereign country. That is his stated goal, and it is not about removing the so-called Nazi regime in Kyiv.  

So he is not going to agree to peacekeepers, and there is no chance for United Nations peacekeepers.  

What is essential is that European troops be on the ground, continuing to provide Ukraine with the weaponry it needs. If there is a ceasefire, Ukraine must have the weapons necessary to deter Russia from resuming the war by making it clear that if Russia attacks again, Ukraine will be able to defend itself, repel the Russian attacks, and inflict enormous damage. Furthermore, if Russia attacks again, it will be attacking European soldiers, which implies some level of connection to NATO, though not a direct one to NATO or the United States.  

I think that is the best we can hope for at this point. However, Putin is already saying he will not agree to any European troops on Ukrainian territory. So we are in a completely darkened room where it is impossible to foresee what is going to happen. Other than that, as I was saying before, Putin does not want to stop fighting. He knows he cannot. He has pledged that he is going to eliminate Ukraine as a sovereign country.  

And yes, as you were saying, he has demanded that the United States and other NATO allies pull their troops out of the so-called new NATO member states in Eastern Europe. I don't see any appetite for that whatsoever among the European members of NATO. They will never agree to it. Donald Trump might want to pull U.S. troops back from their forward deployments, but I don't think the European allies will ever do that.  

As a result, we will see increasing tension in the U.S. relationship with its European allies, and that is something President Putin very much wants to provoke.

Can representatives of China or India be peacekeepers?

As I was saying a moment ago, I don't think there is any chance of peacekeepers from any country being placed between Russia and Ukraine because Putin does not want that to happen.  

Putin wants to keep fighting. He wants to eliminate Ukraine as a sovereign country. He is simply going to play a game to try to prevent Donald Trump from turning against him, both literally and figuratively. But I don’t see any scenario where peacekeeping forces are involved. I cannot imagine any peacekeeping structure that Vladimir Putin would accept. If there were a post-Putin Russia, that would be a completely different story.  

If this were the 1990s, during the era of Boris Yeltsin and Bill Clinton, or even George W. Bush, I participated in the White House in a substantial strategic dialogue between the National Security Councils of Russia and the United States. We agreed on very little, but we spoke, we conceptualized, and we had some ideas on how to combat Islamist extremism. But that is no longer possible. Such discussions are not going to happen now.

There is another key issue concerning the agreement with the US on mineral resources. Some of these deposits are located in temporarily occupied territories. When the Russian and American delegations met, Putin’s representative, Mr. Dmitriev, who has taken over Abramovich’s role in geo-economic negotiations, was present.  

What are the hidden risks of this deal? Legally Ukraine retains ownership of its mineral resources, but some are currently under the control of Russian occupiers.

I think it was a shrewd move by Putin to include Mr. Dmitriev in the negotiations because, to me, that reflects Putin trying to get into Donald Trump's mind and show Trump that he, Putin, thinks like Trump in viewing international relations as business deals.  

Of course, that is not the truth for Putin. What he is really trying to do is occupy and destroy Ukraine, but Trump does not believe that. Trump believes business deals can solve everything, and Putin is playing into that belief by saying, "I agree with you, Mr. President of the United States. Let's do business. We will have Mr. Dmitriev participate in our delegation." It is just a typical and clever form of manipulation of Trump by President Putin.  

When it comes to Ukraine’s critical minerals, yes, many of the prospective reserves are in territory occupied by Russia. That suggests negotiations would have to take place between Washington and Moscow to enable the U.S. to access those minerals.  

As I said before, President Putin has previously suggested that there could be an agreement between Russia and the United States regarding U.S. investment in or access to Russia's critical minerals. Presumably, that would include the ones in the territories of Ukraine that Russia occupies.  

However, we must keep a very important fact in mind. These are not proven reserves, whether in Russian-occupied territory or in sovereign and still independent Ukrainian territory. These are merely possibilities. They are potential reserves based on Soviet-era geological studies, and frankly, those reserves were never sufficiently promising to attract investment.  

Before anyone can truly know what is in the ground, whether in independent Ukraine or occupied Ukraine, years of research are needed, just like in the oil and gas sector, which I am very familiar with. Multiple types of seismic studies must be conducted, followed by appraisal wells or mines, before there is any real idea of their value.  

So I think the Trump administration has, as we say in American colloquial English, put the cart before the horse by demanding access to Ukraine’s critical minerals. Nobody knows how much there is or what they are worth.

How can we establish a strong communication strategy between Kyiv and Washington? Trump is highly unpredictable, and we cannot foresee how Vice President Vance will act. We have some hope in Rubio, but the key decisions will ultimately rest with Trump, who is susceptible to influence from others. Figures like Musk, who holds a rather unfavorable stance on Ukraine and has considerable leverage, could also play a role.

I have no idea. I don't think there is a way right now. As we saw in that disastrous meeting in the Oval Office between President Zelensky and Trump, Trump and JD Vance demand total fealty, total acceptance by an international leader of anything they say.  

And if someone like President Zelensky does not agree because he is protecting his own country's national interests, Trump and JD Vance take great offense. It is as if the United States is acting like Moscow and treating Ukraine as a Soviet colony or a Russian imperial colony.  

Under such circumstances, there is not much that can be done to build an effective communication strategy other than being flexible, deferential, and dodging attacks from Trump, Rubio, or Musk, who push Trump in different directions. The only option is to remain restrained no matter what you really think, say, *"Okay, Mr. President, you're brilliant,"* and then do whatever needs to be done.  

The bottom line is that President Trump and others, especially Elon Musk, operate according to a concept I had never heard of before. I just made it up: *the arrogance of ignorance.* They are business people who are ignorant of how governments actually function and need to function.  

They are ignorant of history and of how the international political and economic system works and should work for the benefit of the United States and the entire world. They believe everything is easy and that everyone in government, whether in the U.S., Ukraine, or anywhere else, is either stupid, lazy, or simply not as successful in business as they are.  

So, those who operate out of ignorance – Trump and Musk – are supremely arrogant in making demands like the ones they imposed on President Zelensky. They would not even let him speak and explain that simply placating Putin and giving him a ceasefire agreement without security guarantees for Ukraine would only ensure that the war starts again. That inconvenient truth is something that Vance and Trump will not accept because they are ignorant and therefore arrogant.

General Keith Kellogg was involved, but now there is no general participating in the negotiation process. Although he had the authority to do so, he was not present in Jeddah.

You need to talk to everybody. Kellogg has clearly been demoted. He is not a member of the negotiating team in Riyadh, but he is still important.  

Lindsey Graham, I think, has his strategic soul in the right place, but his actual soul was sold long ago to the devil of Donald Trump’s politics. Donald Trump humiliated Lindsey Graham, just as he humiliated Marco Rubio during the presidential election campaign, and both of them have become blindly devoted supporters of President Trump.  

What gave me a little hope after the Oval Office meeting regarding Lindsey Graham was that he said something completely unacceptable. He suggested that President Zelensky needed to go. But then, I think he had a moment of realization that he sounded like an imperial overlord trying to overthrow a democratically elected government, so he corrected himself and said that President Zelensky needed to change instead.  

So, despite keeping his strategic soul, Graham understands that it is absolutely reckless and unjust to push President Zelensky the way Trump and Vance did. But at the same time, he simply cannot break with Trump because he is terrified that Trump will politically destroy him.