Prepare for escalation: Military expert predicts what’s coming after ‘ceasefire’

He shared this view on Espreso TV.

“Once the ‘ceasefire’ ends, we should expect an escalation along the front line,” Sniehyriov said. 

“Before the announcement of the three-day ‘ceasefire,’ there was a sharp uptick in clashes on the front. About a week prior, the Ukrainian General Staff reported 120–130 clashes per day; in recent days, that number rose to 270. This shows that Russian army was trying to break through our defenses and improve their tactical position. The three-day ‘ceasefire’ allowed them to bring in operational reserves beyond the reach of Ukrainian drones and other weapons, preparing to expand their offensive against Ukraine’s Defense Forces, with the potential threat of advancing toward Dnipropetrovsk region.”

In Sniehyriov’s view, after the so-called ceasefire Ukraine should expect rising tensions along the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Novopavlivka directions. Russiaʼs strategic goal is to reach the administrative borders of Dnipropetrovsk region.

“The General Staff reported over 150 clashes during the ‘ceasefire,’ so Russian activity did not decrease. In fact, on some fronts, especially near Pokrovsk, Russian forces tried to seize the tactical initiative — including fighting near Shevchenko, which is now about 70% under Russian control. Russia will continue ramping up pressure there, understanding the threat of flanking Ukraine’s Defense Forces in the Pokrovsk sector. The distance from Shevchenko to Pokrovsk is about 2.5 km,” the military expert noted.

According to him, Russia will likely try to seize the Pokrovsk–Kostiantynivka highway, posing both a flanking threat to Ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk and a threat of advancing toward Kostiantynivka.

“There will be an expansion of the combat zone,” Sniehyriov concluded. “In my view, the main theater of combat will shift to the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk area.”

• Roman Kostenko, a Ukrainian lawmaker and Security Service (SBU) colonel, says the 'ceasefire' is not really working: some areas are calmer, but fighting is still going on in others.