Peace talks: what really deserves attention

1. In Alaska, Putin managed to convince Trump that negotiations could take place before a ceasefire. Understanding any changes to this formula is key to interpreting subsequent developments. I think the formula - “Peace first, then negotiations” - is the main issue in the Trump–Zelenskyy talks. Whether it is supported or not is the central answer to whether peace is possible in the near future, even theoretically.

2. Trump’s strategy is to threaten Russia with sharp losses in oil revenues if it does not end the war. At the same time, Tomahawks remain Washington’s main scare tactic: if Russia won’t stop the war, “Ukrainian Tomahawks” will strike an oil transshipment hub in the Baltic Sea.

3. Putin’s strategy is also fairly clear—he is buying time while offering Trump a mythical rare-earths deal in Russia. At the same time, Putin has his own scare tactics: he shows active mobilization preparations and the potential to strike Europe. His goal is to trade NATO’s calm for Ukraine. Our task is to prevent this.

4. Putin’s main red line now is the Donbas. He can only stop the war without control over Donbas if he fears for his own life.

5. The Budapest meeting (whether it happens or not is irrelevant now) is Trump’s double game. On one hand, he supports Orbán ahead of the April 2026 elections. But the main goal is to secure a negotiating “foothold” before talks with China. Russia cannot be a 100% satellite of China at this moment.

Ideally, Trump would like to secure at least some form of peace. If that fails, the minimum goal is to prevent a united stance between Russia and China. Although, in my view, the Americans clearly overestimate Moscow’s role in contemporary world affairs.

As for peace itself, its likelihood is quite low - though still above zero.

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About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

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