Peace plan: Donbas settlement inevitable, unless Putin undermines diplomacy
The main achievement of the negotiations — security guarantees will be ratified by Congress. In other words, unlike the Budapest Memorandum, which was a political commitment, these guarantees, it seems, will have the status of an international treaty, which is binding
1. If this is so — this is, indeed, a huge plus for us. True, so far we only hear about general outlines without details. Including the fact that in the "first edition" the U.S. provided these guarantees for only 15 years. In short, we need to wait for the final document, although I repeat, in words it looks positive.
2. I already wrote some time ago that with Kushner's arrival, the Americans changed their negotiation strategy. They divided the negotiation points into territory and "everything else". So now, it appears, this "everything else" is fully (practically fully) agreed upon with Ukraine. Next, the Americans meet with the Russians. If the Russians agree, Ukraine will be forced to make territorial concessions. A formulation will be found.
"3. Is Putin ready to agree to a freeze? I believe he will drag out time. And I will repeat what I have written repeatedly: for him, victory is not only about territory. It is the lifting of sanctions and a return to geopolitics. In this context, there are a number of questions to which there are no answers yet."
First, will the lifting of American sanctions be enough for him, or will he demand that Europeans lift sanctions in parallel (especially since he understands Macron's game, who will move precisely in this direction and precisely for this purpose plans to meet with Putin on February 7). In this same context stands the question of assets frozen in Europe.
Second, today the question of relations with China remains open, which definitely would not want a strengthening of America's presence in projects strategic for China on hydrocarbons and rare earth metals.
And finally, there is a third question, purely psychological: Putin desperately wants to destroy Ukraine and lives in certain illusions about the fragility of the front.
4. Based on what has been said, it seems to me that Putin will try to drag out time a bit more, expecting a miracle. Starting from 2024, he and his entourage think in rather short time lags. So now he will try to delay the decision. For how long? The answer is very simple: as long as he can without quarreling with Trump. He has already stopped being afraid of Trump, but he is still afraid to quarrel with him.
5. If Russia and the U.S. still reach an agreement, Ukraine will be forced to withdraw from Donbas. Under what sauce is still unclear, but they will come up with a formulation. Unfortunately, it appears that we are being prepared for a referendum (more precisely, it will be some kind of plebiscite) with relatively vague formulations.
Today, society is divided on the issue of holding such a referendum (44% for, 35% against, 21% undecided). But it seems the decision about a referendum is one being discussed as a priority. Especially since in the Rada, it is unknown whether votes will be gathered for ratification of such a treaty. Although the Kisel case will undoubtedly make part of the parliament more obedient.
About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.
The editorial office does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.
- News