Overall assumption that Russia is winning war is incorrect — Ukraine’s FM

He wrote about this on X.

“The overall assumption that Russia is winning the war is incorrect. It is based on a common pattern among foreign analysts of underestimating Ukraine and overestimating Russia. This pattern has been proven wrong many times before, but people keep falling into the same trap,” Sybiha said.

According to him, Ukraine has largely stabilized the front line and even recaptured some territory near Pokrovsk and other areas. Instead, Russia is making only “minimal and extremely costly” advances in some areas, losing over a thousand soldiers killed and wounded every day. 

“These are the bloodiest square meters that any army has taken in modern history,” the minister added.

He added that, over the three years of the full-scale invasion, Russia has lost more than 950,000 soldiers killed and wounded. However, since then, it has not captured a single new regional center in Ukraine. The only exception was Kherson, which Ukraine liberated in 2022, along with more than half of the occupied territories.

Sybiha noted that Ukraine has expanded its defense industry sixfold and now meets approximately 40% of its military needs domestically. Additionally, Ukraine produces 95% of the drones that destroyed around 77,000 Russian targets on the frontline in March 2025 alone.

“This figure is 10% higher than in February, and Ukraine's drone capacity is increasing by the week. Overall, up to three-quarters of the frontline targets are destroyed with drones,” the Foreign Minister added.

• On April 24, after Russia's nighttime attack on Ukraine, Andrii Sybiha said that it is Moscow, not Kyiv, that should be put under pressure.