Spider’s Web operation: major escalation looms, but offers path out of war

Trying to keep emotion out of it, I want to highlight the following:

1. Diplomacy has no real chance during active combat (this is the military’s time). Only battlefield success opens the door for diplomacy.

"2. Russia’s narrative and its usual line in talks with the Americans (claiming Ukraine has no chance to win) have once again been effectively, openly, and strategically undermined."

3. Another long-standing narrative (repeated in the media and, unfortunately, by some politicians) that this war is happening only in Ukraine, is now dead. That’s just false! The war is also happening on Russian territory. Across all of Russia. The assumption that Russia’s deep rear is a guaranteed advantage is now in question.

4. Do not underestimate the enemy. A retaliatory strike is likely. Expect it to be aimed at intimidation and at trying to take back the initiative. And yes, in typical Russian fashion, it could hit civilian targets instead of military ones, designed for maximum shock and media impact.

5. However this unfolds, one thing is clear: a long war of attrition suits neither side. That means escalation in the coming weeks and months will likely be at its highest. This may be the only way to break out of full-scale war. Unfortunately, there’s no alternative right now.

And most importantly: new technologies, combined with professionalism and the ingenuity Ukrainians are known for, make it possible, even in a large-scale war, to protect the lives of defenders and reduce civilian casualties as much as possible (paradoxically, even on the enemy’s side).

The heroism and resilience of Ukrainians, their ability to fight asymmetrically can influence not only allies, but the enemy, even one that once seemed unstoppable.

Eternal glory to all who gave their lives defending the country!

Glory to those who refuse to surrender and keep moving Ukraine toward victory!

Source

About the author. Valeriy Chaly, Ukrainian diplomat, former Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to the United States.

The editorial staff does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.