On Putin’s readiness to end war and Trump as mediator

Simply because, at the moment, a full-scale war is literally the only reason for the existence of his regime, his only source of legitimacy. As soon as the war in Ukraine ends, he needs to either start a new one or offer some new "project" to both his inner circle and the population, which will explain all this. Explain not from the point of view of democratic legitimacy, but from the point of view of the logic of the existence of dictatorships.

"For dictatorships, the best source of legitimacy is an "external threat" or insidious "internal enemies." Of course, there are also dictatorships of development, but such a model is no longer possible for Russia under Putin."

Exiting the war means demobilizing the useless people who were recruited into the Russian army, it is conversion, it is the need to explain whether the victims were worth the effort (not to the population, but to the pillars of the regime). This is the need to seek trillions in investments to normalize life and the economy.

Therefore, war for Putin's regime is a kind of homeostasis for a chronic alcoholic. The body gradually weakens and dies - economically, demographically, militarily, from the point of view of the degradation of management mechanisms. But you can't quit drinking abruptly, because it can get worse. Or the brain (Putin himself and his core) thinks so.

So, there are two scenarios in which Russia will exit the war and not transfer it, say, to the Baltic countries:

• Putin's regime is exhausted and does not have time to jump out of the war before its obvious economic, military, and political collapse. Then the negotiations will only be about the capitulation of the Russian Federation.
• Putin's regime is on the verge and manages to jump out of the war before the obvious economic, military, and political collapse. That is, it goes to realistic negotiations, but manages to record certain "results." Before the final collapse, of course.

To make this happen faster, additional pressure is needed. In the economy and through the supply of weapons to Ukraine. And against this background, Putin is simply counting on outlasting Ukraine, Europe, and the West. In the long term, this still does not save him from the consequences of what he did to Russia, but the logic of "you will die today, and I will die tomorrow" is his favorite.

Therefore, Trump's "Putin is tired of the war" is based either on a deep misunderstanding of why Putin will drag out the war as long as he can, or on a unique knowledge that Putin is already in despair and looking for peace, or on the fact that Vitkoff fed Trump the second. I bet on the first.

The fact that Putin does not want to end the war and will not do it quickly without additional pressure is being tried to be conveyed to Trump by Ukraine, France, Germany, Britain, and adequate Americans. So far, as we can see, Donnie denies reality or is simply unable to understand it. And we must continue to try to force him to meet with her.

Because this negotiation track, which he himself initiated, cannot end in any peace if Putin is able to continue fighting. And he is still capable. The American president can shorten the terms of this ability and save thousands of lives, which he thinks about in words. But so far, he demonstrates himself to be very weak and stupid. The dumbest president in the history of his country.

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About the author. Yurii Bohdanov, publicist, specialist in strategic communications in the field of business, public administration and politics.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.