No indications war will end in this decade, says Ukrainian journalist Portnikov

He shared this opinion on the air of Espreso TV.

"In my opinion, ending the war and negotiating are two parallel processes. Negotiations are not held to end the war but to continue it. I think we shouldn't expect the war to end in the foreseeable future at all. If, for some reason, hostilities suddenly cease, let that be a pleasant bonus for Ukrainian citizens. But fundamentally, I see no indicators suggesting the war will end this decade. Nor do I see any signs that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is trending toward resolution in the 2020s–2040s. The war might shift in intensity, but most likely, it will become a stable state of existence for the Ukrainian state and territory over many decades as a continuing conflict," noted Vitaliy Portnikov.

In his view, the task ahead is to minimize this conflict: minimize the number of casualties and destruction, and live in a situation where long periods of peace alternate with short wars. Believing that Ukraine will become a peaceful country during the lifetime of the current generation is a dangerously naive illusion, he says, one that could lead to depression or, when unmet, the desire to leave the country.

"Ukrainians must prepare for life in a fortress-state—where explosions happen, where fighting continues, where young citizens undergo military training, and where certain civil rights may be restricted during short wars that follow the end of this long war. We must prepare for all this as the reality of life in Ukraine: if you want to live in Ukraine, you won’t be living in a different version of it. By the way, I cannot guarantee Ukrainians that they will live in a democratic state under these circumstances, because democracy is unlikely to ensure national survival on the front lines. This must be clearly understood. But at the same time, we must understand that our task is to realize Trump’s scenario, not Putin’s. We must compel Russia to negotiate peace only after a ceasefire, not during ongoing hostilities," the journalist emphasized.

According to him, the goal of Ukrainian survival is long peace and short wars. We must nurture this long peace to prepare for new rounds of endless wars. And these endless wars will end only if the Russian Federation is reformatted. The only true security guarantee for Ukraine is a democratic, peaceful Russia that is willing to recognize Ukrainian sovereignty and identity.

"In fact, Ukraine’s future hinges on Russia—not on Europe or the United States. If Russia remains authoritarian, chauvinistic, imperialistic, and nuclear, it will do everything it can to erase Ukraine from the world’s political map. Can Russia change under pressure from economic hardship, from the impossibility of reclaiming Ukraine—the key to Russian statehood—from the pressures of modernity, which do not allow plutocratic regimes like Putin’s to survive indefinitely? Yes, Russia can change. When? Either the current generation of Ukrainians or their children or grandchildren will have to live to see it. Perhaps the grandchildren of today’s Ukrainians will live next to a democratic, European, strong Russia that will be a greater guarantor of continental security than the United States. And then, they will say that our great-grandchildren will no longer die in war. But that will take time. For now, I do not see such a Russia," Portnikov concluded.