No doubt Putin will choose war. And he will lose

In general, the last few days have revealed very interesting trends, and May 10 will in many ways be the decisive day before the fall. Putin, of course, will decide.

The first and important trend is that Putin has already declared a second ceasefire this year - something he hadn’t done throughout this brutal war. This indicates that he has to take Trump and his peace initiatives into account. It’s clear that Putin is stalling and trying to mislead Trump, but unintentionally, he has shown everyone that he is capable of agreeing to a ceasefire. That’s why it will now be quite difficult for him to explain why this ceasefire can’t be extended for 30 days, as Trump proposed and Ukraine supported.

The second important trend is that Trump has clearly shifted course away from trying to resolve the conflict peacefully. In this regard, he appears to be passing the baton to Erdoğan and possibly to Comrade Xi. It’s clear that neither of them will succeed if Trump himself couldn’t. So this seems like a smooth handoff - a way to step back and focus on other issues while placing the burden on others.

In principle, this is what Putin was hoping for - that Trump would not care, that he would stop helping, and that Putin would win. But there is a nuance: Ukraine and the United States did sign a minerals deal. 

“That’s why Trump won’t stop supplying us with weapons - he’ll do it using funds from the future defense fund. He’ll also sell weapons paid for with European money. So in effect, Putin has lost the battle for Trump.”

The third trend concerns oil prices. Since early April, they’ve dropped by 20% and have remained within that range. OPEC has decided to increase production despite falling prices, which pushes prices down even further. This is a new approach, as producers usually cut output to raise prices when the market declines. Now, OPEC is doing the opposite, signaling a prolonged period of low oil prices. Oil revenues make up 60% of Russia’s budget, which will fall short by at least a quarter of that amount if current prices persist.

Amid these trends, voices around Putin are growing louder, warning that he may miss the chance to strike a deal favorable to him - and that such terms may no longer be available later. Notably, Ushakov’s statement that they are being heard in the U.S. and that this is the best opportunity for constructive dialogue, which could be lost, reflects this concern.

So May 10 will be a difficult day for Putin. If he doesn’t extend the ceasefire, he’ll destroy any remaining chance for a constructive agreement and dialogue with the U.S. If he does extend it, he’ll trigger a peace process that offers him no major victories and fails to justify the cost of his losses.

I have no doubt he’ll choose war. And he’ll lose.

Source

About the author. Viktor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst, and publicist

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.