Moscow’s drones over Poland: what were UAVs scouting near Warsaw and Lublin?

Defense Express reports.

During the overnight assault on September 10, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed that 19 Russian drones were used. He said the first breach of Polish airspace occurred at 11:30 p.m., with the last sighting recorded at 6:30 a.m. 

However, Poland’s leading media outlets initially reported as many as 23 drones. Only three or four were shot down—likely those posing an immediate threat to specific sites. Photographs from the crash sites suggest the drones were Russian Geran UAVs, lightweight foam aircraft typically employed as decoys but capable of carrying reconnaissance equipment or small warheads weighing up to five kilograms.

Given that Russian drones equipped with Polish SIM cards had been detected since July, Defense Express notes it is highly plausible that the September attack was primarily a reconnaissance mission. 

Mapping the drones’ reported crash sites and flight routes reveals some striking patterns. For instance, five drones fell along the Biała Podlaska–Parczew line, not only a border zone with Belarus but also the location of three key highways: the E30, Route 63, and Route 82. 

Other drones were detected north of Lublin, near the defense industry hub of Stalowa Wola, west of Białystok, and even as far as Łódź.

The analysis becomes more telling when these routes are overlaid with Poland’s air-defense infrastructure. Two of the three long-range radar detection posts on Poland’s eastern border—Roskosz (site 144 with NUR-12M radar) and Labunie (site 110 with RAT-31DL radar)—fall within the areas monitored by the drones. The third such site is located near Szypliszki, in the Suwałki Corridor. Several Polish Air Force bases are also in range. 

Defense Express suggests that this raises the possibility the operation was intended to probe Poland’s air-defense system along likely “march routes” toward Warsaw and Lublin. Still, the outlet notes that such conclusions remain speculative, while officials in Warsaw have so far publicly described the incursion as a “provocation.”