Moscow pushes 'no-fight' Donetsk grab ahead of Alaska summit

Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko discussed the issue, Obozrevatel reports.

Russia’s battlefield gains have slowed sharply since 2022, and military analysts argue the Kremlin is trying to leverage talks to secure by politics what it is unlikely to seize by force. 

Donetsk — 26,517 square kilometers and among Ukraine’s most fortified regions since 2014 — has resisted years of assaults, with cities like Chasiv Yar becoming multi-year battles. While Russia expanded its invasion force from roughly 180,000 troops in 2022 to nearly 700,000 today, its offensive pace has collapsed as losses in experienced personnel and heavy armor forced a shift to infantry-heavy tactics supported by FPV drones and artillery. By comparison, Russia occupied about 64,700 square kilometers across several regions in 2022, but only around 3,300 in 2024 and roughly 2,400 more by late July 2025.

The military expert says that, at current rates, taking the remainder of Donetsk would likely require years, not months. Kovalenko describes Russia’s push for a “no-fight” territory transfer as an attempt to bank the most fortified and costly front through negotiations, not maneuver — especially as the Russian military faces mounting shortages in main battle tanks, armored vehicles, and rocket artillery, with tube artillery shortfalls expected to deepen.

Kyiv and its supporters dismiss any proposal to hand over sovereign Ukrainian territory as untenable — militarily, legally, and morally. They warn that legitimizing conquest would embolden other authoritarian regimes and stain any mediator who endorses it. Ultimately, Ukraine’s position remains unchanged: decisions about its territory are not Washington’s or Moscow’s to make, and Donetsk’s future lies within a unified Ukraine.