Kyiv braces for massive strike as peace talks loom

Probably, there is no person in the country who hasn't seen the news that in the next few days there will be a massive Russian strike on Kyiv and the region. And you don't need to be a great analyst to understand — this strike, if it happens, will be directed at energy infrastructure.

1. Unfortunately, Trump is in no hurry to pressure Russia to respond as quickly as possible to the proposals of the 20-point plan. Witkoff and Kushner's visit to Moscow will be no earlier than the end of this month, which means that until the end of the month Putin has a time lag. And I am convinced that this meeting will lead to nothing: Putin will drag out time, and Trump has no leverage over Putin that would allow him to effectively pressure Russia right now.

2. Trump's Venezuelan bravado is gradually evaporating. And regarding Iran, the situation has clearly stalled. And it appears that the U.S. strategy consists of two points:

• observe the energy situation in Ukraine; 
• if necessary, wait another six months or so until Russian oil problems maximally weaken Russia.

3. U.S. logic for 2026 boils down to the following:

• obtain maximum control over oil pricing in the world;
• obtain maximum control over the world's main logistical points (Greenland, Panama and Suez canals);
• maximally return the dollar to global trade operations (primarily through oil);
• obtain maximum access to rare earth metals in the world.

4. All of this is being done in order to enter negotiations with China from the strongest possible position — China, which last year accepted Trump's challenge and declared: if you want a trade war, we will restrict your access to rare earths.

5. But let's return to Ukraine. Putin, logically, must deliver a serious strike on Kyiv: he believes that a blackout will force Ukraine to accept a humiliating peace. I think he will not succeed, but I would like to draw attention to several points that became a "bottleneck" after the previous shelling.

1. A state of emergency in energy was declared. But this is a metaphor that has no foundation. Unfortunately, the new energy minister will work with peacetime powers. The only hope is that the newly created energy headquarters (the fifth in two years) will function. All four previous ones imitated activity.
2. At the diplomatic level, we completely failed the track of Russian energy genocide. The statement of our special representative at the UN about "dry your oars and weave bast shoes" is the quintessence of this failure. Instead of trying to please Ukrainians, it was necessary to say that the last time something similar happened in Ukraine was in 1941 because of the fascists.
3. At the state level and at the Kyiv level, we completely failed communication with the population. Unfortunately, now no one has drawn conclusions. Neither at the Kyiv level nor at the state level is there not just a communication strategy — there are no speakers who could communicate competently.

I will repeat once again: we must prepare for the most difficult. The worst thing that can happen is to start shifting responsibility. And this is still the baseline scenario.

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About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

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