Kursk operation. First results, consequences, risks

Results:

1. The Ukrainian Armed Forces command showed strategic genius by striking in a completely unexpected place and catching the Russians off guard.
2. The Russian “large strategic reserves” turned out to be a PSYOP and a myth. On the 9th day, they could not muster enough forces to organize the front and deter Ukrainian breakthrough.
3. On day 9, the Russian command is trying to figure out where Ukrainian troops are. That's how bad their intelligence is.

Consequences:

1. A powerful information blow to the Putin regime. The hysteria of bloggers and public sentiment create a negative background for mobilization and support for the continuation of the “special military operation”.
2. A large number of prisoners is great news for Ukrainian soldiers. Unfortunately, before that the ratio was 1:5 not in our favor.
3. The scenario of freezing along the front line has been destroyed. The operation has removed from the agenda both Putin's and China's proposals to start negotiations after the freeze on the front line.

Risks:

1. Putin will be forced to mobilize or withdraw brigades from the front to drive Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region. This is now a strategic issue for him. The new mobilization complicates the situation for Ukraine, but also for Putin. The question is what comes first.
2. The danger of getting stuck in the battles in the Kursk region, spending new reserves, equipment and resources, having much less capabilities than the enemy. To some extent, this is a reverse situation of the Russians in Kharkiv, who cannot advance and cannot withdraw either.
3. The danger of the front collapsing elsewhere due to excessive concentration of forces in the Kursk region.

About the author. Victor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst and publicist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.