ISW analyzes Russia's 'tactical turning movement’ near Avdiivka

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported the information.

It noted that Ukrainian troops have not yet completely withdrawn from Avdiivka and continue to prevent Russian troops from achieving more significant success than the current gradual advance.

According to geolocation maps, Russia has recently advanced to the southern outskirts of the Avdiivka Coke Plant in the northwest of Avdiivka. In addition, it captured a Ukrainian fortified position south of Avdiivka, which had long been a Russian sub-tactical target. And propagandists say that Russian troops have actually encircled the positions adjacent to Avdiivka to the south of it.

One of Russia’s goals is to cut off the dirt roads that supply Ukrainian troops with positions in Avdiivka from Lastochkyne and Pivnichne, although ISW has not yet seen any evidence of this advance by Russian troops.

According to analysts, the Russian offensive to capture Avdiivka underscores the inability of the Russian military to conduct a successful operational coverage or encirclement in Ukraine.

"An operational encirclement is a maneuver in which attacking forces completely surround and then destroy an enemy grouping of forces," the analysts explain.

They emphasize that Russian troops have achieved neither in Avdiivka, and in particular, have repeatedly failed to conduct operations to surround or encircle Ukrainian troops throughout the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

At the same time, Russia expended a significant amount of manpower and equipment to capture Avdiivka, and they will likely need a long period of consolidation, recovery, and rest before attempting any further coordinated offensives in the area.

• The situation in Avdiivka, Donetsk region, is "extremely critical." Soldiers of the Third Assault Brigade have been redeployed to this area.
• In his address on February 15, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy commented on the situation at the front, particularly in Avdiivka and in eastern Ukraine in general. He stressed that every effort is being made in Avdiivka to preserve as many Ukrainian lives as possible.
• The commander of the Tavria operational and strategic grouping of troops, Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, said that the defense operation in Avdiivka continues.