Israel-Iran war could weaken Russia’s combat capability in Ukraine - military expert

Mykhailo Samus, Director of the New Geopolitics Research Network, told this to Espreso.

Every Ukrainian is aware of the results of close military-technical cooperation between Russia and Iran: Iranian long-range Shahed-136 strike drones have become the main weapon of the Russian terrorist attacks on the civilian infrastructure of Ukraine. In addition, Russia and Iran are closely cooperating in the missile industry (which may have improved the accuracy of Iranian missiles fired at Israel), as well as in other areas of arms and military equipment development and production.

Mykhailo Samus points out that Russia and Iran share a number of interests: circumvention of sanctions, technological cooperation, and common hostility to the United States and NATO. 

According to international research centers, Moscow has already transferred navigation and guidance technologies, software components for UAVs, and experience in disguising equipment from Western intelligence to Tehran. Iran, in turn, is helping Russia to produce Shahed drones, which are already being assembled in Tatarstan, Russia. Therefore, the destruction of Iran's military-industrial complex plants, and even more so the fall of the Iranian regime, will mean the loss of technology and weapons suppliers for the Russian army

Among the negative consequences of the Middle East conflict, the expert notes a possible increase in oil prices and the deployment of air and missile defense systems (primarily the U.S. armed forces) to the Middle East. This may limit the ability of partners to assist in strengthening Ukraine's air and missile defense capabilities.

But despite all the risks, the Israeli-Iranian war also opens up certain opportunities for Ukraine. 

"If Israel destroys Iran's air defense system and, as a result, Iran's military-industrial complex facilities, the possibility of supplying components for drones and other weapons to Russia may be reduced. There may also be a reduced risk of ballistic missiles being delivered from Iran to Russia, which the Russian leadership has long sought to obtain from Iran. 

In addition to direct consequences, there may be indirect ones. Iran may turn to Russia for urgent assistance in supplying air defense systems, Su-35 fighters, and other military aid. As a result, some of the weapons that could be used by Russia against Ukraine could go to Iran and thus weaken the capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces on the Ukrainian front," Samus said.

According to the expert, in the context of active hostilities, Israel may well change its attitude to cooperation with Ukraine, which will open up opportunities for an active military-technical dialogue with Israel in the field of electronic warfare, drone and anti-drone technologies, intelligence and surveillance systems.

 “Ukraine's experience in modern warfare, drone-centric doctrine, and the use of ground robotic systems is a unique asset that can become the basis for a new partnership,” believes Mykhailo Samus.