Is Rheinmetall right that Taurus won’t change much in Ukraine?

German cruise missiles Taurus, which German Chancellor Olaf Scholz refused to deliver, now have the greatest chances of strengthening the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This is at least indicated by the position of his likely successor, Friedrich Merz, who aims to secure a majority vote in the Bundestag for his appointment.

However, the CEO of the German defense company Rheinmetall, Armin Papperger, in an interview with Handelsblatt, stated that the decision to deliver these cruise missiles "won't change much in the war," unlike the delivery of larger amounts of artillery shells. Defense Express has analyzed this statement in the context of the interview itself, where Armin Papperger was more focused on talking about the company's successes.

Papperger reported that in 2024, the company's sales increased by 36%, reaching 9.75 billion euros, with an operating profit growth of 61% to 1.48 billion euros. The total order portfolio reached 55 billion euros, and for 2025, a 35-40% increase in sales volumes is expected.

Among these financial figures, Rheinmetall's production includes 750,000 artillery shells annually. Additionally, the company plans to expand its production to 1.5 million shells per year, for which it is not only expanding its facilities in Germany and Spain, but also building additional plants in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Denmark, Ukraine, and conducting negotiations with Poland and Romania.

At the same time, Papperger stated that the Ukrainian factory, which is scheduled to start operating in 2026, was initially planned to produce 150,000 shells. However, that figure has since been "significantly increased." He did not specify the exact numbers or the timeline for reaching the increased capacity. It is important to note that Rheinmetall is building a "turnkey" ammunition plant in Ukraine and will hold a 51% stake in it.

Rheinmetall's leadership sees artillery shell production as a "golden vein," as both the shell manufacturer and the production equipment provider, since "everyone wants factories." 

However, regarding the Taurus missiles, there is one fact that truly indicates that Taurus has no chance of being a "game-changer." This fact was first mentioned by German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius back in November 2023. The reason—its available quantity.

Ingo Gerhartz, Commander of the Luftwaffe, in a leaked discussion about the possibility of transferring and using these missiles by Ukraine, mentioned a specific number—up to 100 Taurus in two batches of 50 each. Or significantly fewer, but faster, likely from the actual Bundeswehr reserves of 150-250 missiles in flight-worthy condition.

 It is also worth noting that Germany has no plans to produce new Taurus missiles, but only to refurbish all (reportedly 479 units in total) and maintain them in a ready-to-use state for 829.8 million euros until 2045.

At the same time, the transfer of Taurus missiles to Ukraine is not only about the possibility of hitting a few dozen important Russian military targets. It is also about Germany's position, which Russia directly threatened to prevent the transfer of these missiles and drew red lines, just like Moscow threatened France and the UK did before delivering Storm Shadow/SCALP.