Is Kursk operation coming to end or entering new phase? Expert weighs in

Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko discussed the issue, Minval.az reports.

According to Kovalenko, it's too early to draw such conclusions, as the Kursk operation has both military and political aspects. To understand the coming days or weeks, several key points must be clarified.

Political aspects

First of all, according to Russian sources and several Western media, about ten thousand Ukrainian soldiers are concentrated in the Kursk region, while the Russian group in the area numbers 60,000. This group has been significantly reinforced by North Korean troops. However, the main point is that Russian forces have always had numerical superiority in the Kursk region, which has only grown, yet over the seven months of the operation, they haven't shown such high activity in advancing. Why?

The fact is that the new phase of the Russian offensive in the Kursk region coincidentally aligned not only with the cessation of U.S. arms supplies to Ukraine but also with the halt of intelligence sharing. A similar coincidence was observed in October 2023 when Republicans in Congress began blocking aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, coinciding with a large-scale Russian offensive on the Avdiivka front.

Another important point is that ahead of May 9, Vladimir Putin tasked General Lapin, commander of the "North" group, with regaining control of the Kursk region at all costs. This is because the "liberation" of Kursk will hold a special place in Putin's speech on Red Square, with gratitude also expressed to Kim Jong-un and North Korean troops. These are crucial moments for Putin.

In conclusion, Russian forces are escalating ahead of key geopolitical events, like the upcoming Ukraine, U.S., and Russia meeting in Saudi Arabia. The uncontrollable part of Kursk is a weak spot for the Kremlin, making it crucial for Moscow to regain control, while Kyiv holding it strengthens Ukraine's negotiation position.

Military aspects

Currently, Russian forces are advancing on nearly all fronts, using elite units from the 810th, 155th, and 30th Marine Brigades. North Korean troops have also been actively deployed within the 810th Brigade. In late February, Russian forces attempted to break into Sumy region and seize the Zhuryavka-Novenkoye-Basovka route to cut off Ukraine's main logistics artery, Sudzha-Sumy (N-07). The goal was to encircle Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region, but while they established fire control over the route and significantly disrupted logistics, they failed to achieve full encirclement.

During this period, Ukraine's intelligence sharing from the U.S. began to decrease, with no information provided last week. The Ukrainian command had to diversify its intelligence sources, but time was lost, allowing the enemy to capitalize by launching an offensive towards Mala Loknya, Russke Porechne, and Cherkaskoye Porechne, expanding control south of Kurylivka.

Currently, Ukraine, having diversified its intelligence sources from the U.S., is trying to stabilize the front line east of Sudzha along the railway, taking into account the terrain features of the district center. For example, the winding Sudzha River acts as a natural barrier and could serve as a defense line by destroying key crossings near Makhnovka, Kozacha Loknya, and the city of Sudzha itself.

However, the Russian numerical superiority and the near-total destruction of the city over seven months make securing and stabilizing positions extremely difficult, if not impossible. At the same time, Sudzha’s ruins are suitable for rear-guard battles. Ukraine's key task now may be to maintain control of the N-07 highway to gradually withdraw some forces while retaining a presence outside the difficult-to-defend district center. As in the August 2024 offensive, natural terrain features will be used to create barriers against Russian flank attacks.

So, exploiting the lack of U.S. intelligence, numerical superiority, and diversionary maneuvers in the Sumy region, Russian forces advanced successfully in the Sudzha district. Given the situation, Ukrainian troops will likely have to withdraw from Sudzha, as establishing a defensive line there remains extremely difficult. However, this does not mean a full retreat from the area. Maintaining buffer zones and control south and southwest of the city could delay Russia’s ability to adopt a dominant negotiating stance.