Iran’s power shift as mirror: What it reveals about Russia’s future elite

The first elite was made up of those who actually made the revolution-a broad political union against the rule of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. It was a truly broad front: from religious authorities to the pro-communist, Soviet-oriented Tudeh Party. The first Iranian governments after the victory of the revolution were filled with representatives of this colorful coalition-until the moment when Ayatollah Khomeini decisively usurped all power in the country and allowed the new elite to grow stronger: the clergy themselves and their supporters.

But to believe that this same elite still rules Iran would be a mistake. The real redistribution of power took place during the prolonged Iran-Iraq war, when the repressive apparatus was fully restructured and the clergy effectively shared power with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

In this symbiosis, Iran increasingly resembled classic 20th-century authoritarian regimes - like the Soviet Union with its dual system of the Party and security services, or Nazi Germany with the Party and the SS. As in the USSR or the Third Reich, the authority of the clergy and the IRGC outweighed that of the regular army.

Today, it is members of this very elite who are being killed in Israeli strikes. If the system survives, we may witness the emergence of a fourth elite of the Islamic Republic - one forged not in revolution or the Iran-Iraq war, but in the current Iran-Israel confrontation. This new elite will consist not of idealists or fanatics, but of individuals shaped by cynicism, opportunism, and loyalty solely to the regime.

I do not exclude that this new Iran will be more cautious than the previous one. But, of course, it will be much more insidious.

Analyzing the changes in Iranian nomenclature allows us to better understand what kind of Russian elite we will be dealing with in the near future. After all, Russia is now ruled by the second elite after the collapse of the USSR. And the third one is coming.

The first was the “broad front” elite, united against the communist dictatorship and instrumental in creating a new state. It included everyone - from former nomenklatura members and security officers to democrats, liberals, and nationalists - not only Russians but representatives of all the peoples of the former empire.

However, this 1990s elite quickly gave way to a new one - hardened by the Chechen war, consolidated around the cult of Putin, and dominated by the total control of the security services. Today, it is this elite that upholds Putin’s vertical power structure.

However, even this elite may soon give way to new groups — those who profit and advance their careers through Russia’s war against Ukraine. If the Putin regime endures, we will face an even more radical and ruthless generation. Young people raised in a world of propaganda, hatred toward the West, and belief in war as the most effective solution increasingly resemble their Iranian counterparts — equally fanatical products of an authoritarian system.

This is the true elite of war.

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About the author: Vitaly Portnikov, journalist, laureate of the Shevchenko National Prize of Ukraine

The editorial team does not always share the views expressed by blog authors.