Iran sidelines Russia, eyes Europe as key mediator in nuclear talks

The author of the Resurgam Telegram channel discussed the issue.

Witkoff is likely trying to sell Trump "Moscow air" regarding Russia's mediation in nuclear talks with Iran. In exchange for this, Russia demands concessions in the Ukrainian negotiation process. To avoid repetition, what points this implies were mentioned in previous posts.

Now, let's talk about how the Iranians want to throw out the unnecessary mediator and replace it with Europe.

First round of talks in Oman. It was expected that this round would not bring breakthrough results. The goal of these talks was to establish communication between the negotiating teams. According to Axios, the talks lasted for 45 minutes.

During the first round's organization, there was quite interesting information that "high-ranking Iranian officials demanded from Khamenei permission to negotiate with the United States on nuclear weapons, threatening the collapse of the regime." If this is true, it shows that a power struggle is beginning to emerge in Iran due to Khamenei's age and worsening health.

But what's interesting is the following.

After the first round of talks, the second round was planned to be held in Vienna. If we ignore the geographic aspect (from Oman to Austria), there's an interesting point: The Iranians initially stated that the Omanis would continue to be mediators, but Russia, in order to continue selling its "mediation air," insisted that the Russian Permanent Representative to International Organizations in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov, would be the host.

This is further confirmation that Russia positions itself as a mediator in the nuclear negotiations, which Witkoff sells to the White House as a "result," presenting it as a sign of its effectiveness.

But the Iranians are pushing the parasitic Russians away. According to reports, the next round will not take place in Austria but in Rome. This was confirmed by Mikhail Ulyanov himself, who will not be the "host" in Vienna.

The location for the first round was decided by the Americans. Most likely, the Iranians are deciding the location for the second round.

Why do the Iranians want to move the talks to Europe?

Thus, Iran wants to involve Europeans in the development of a new (second) nuclear deal. Why Europeans? Because, as with the first deal, Europe's position can balance the U.S. pressure on Iran.

Another aspect is that among Iran's demands is the easing of sanctions and unfreezing financing (which also requires the EU, not just the U.S.).

Russia, on the other hand, simply will not balance the terms of the agreement between Iran and the U.S.; rather, Russia has been exploiting the potential nuclear deal, and it seems that the Iranians understand this. The Iranians, like Ukraine, are seen in the Witkoff-Dmitriev communication as "pawns."

And the Iranians don't need that. Especially since, not long ago, we discussed how there were political disagreements and some cooling of relations between Moscow and Iran.

Therefore, the Iranians are now creating conditions (or trying to) for the EU to become the facilitator of the process.

What does this mean for Ukraine and Europe?

For Ukraine: To avoid any manipulation of my words, I’ll clarify that this is NOT about "forgiving Iran." It’s not about that at all. What’s happening now are circumstances that could potentially strip Russia of one of its alliances. The process is slow, but it’s moving in that direction.

Freezing the partnership between Moscow and Iran is a strategic interest for Ukraine, as it will reduce certain military and technical risks for us.

For the EU: This is an opportunity both to weaken Russia's position (by putting pressure on Iran with specific demands) and to increase its geopolitical weight, including in positioning itself before the U.S.

The EU's diplomacy understands this: "We will remain vigilant, together with our British and German friends and partners, to ensure that any (U.S.-Iran) negotiations that may occur will align with our (European) security interests regarding Iran's nuclear program," said Jean-Yves Le Drian, the French Foreign Minister, upon arriving at an EU foreign ministers meeting in Luxembourg.