Belarus' invasion of Ukraine is likely if Kremlin decides to replace Lukashenko - political analyst

He expressed this opinion on Espreso TV.

"Indeed, on 24 February 2022, Russian troops entered Ukraine from the territory of Belarus. They were preparing for this invasion under the guise of a migration crisis, and they were preparing quite effectively. After all, they planned to carry out a blitzkrieg, as the distance from the border of Belarus to Kyiv is more than 100 km. However, Belarusian troops did not take part in the invasion. Then, from March to October, missiles were fired from the territory of Belarus," Mahda said.

According to the political scientist, Lukashenko is not ready for a war with Ukraine.

"Today, Lukashenko is primarily seeking to hold elections in February 2025. He really needs Putin's loyalty now, so that there are no unpleasant surprises in the next six months. Especially, so that Russia does not try to nominate its own candidate in the Belarusian elections. The fact is that the number of Belarusian troops near the border with Ukraine does not exactly indicate the reality of the threat of invasion. Wagner's men are there only as instructors. Therefore, Lukashenko will not give an order to invade. However, the Kremlin may decide to replace him with a president more loyal to Russia, and then the situation on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border may change," he added.

• Since the start of the operation in Kursk region, Belarus has deployed at least a thousand troops to the Gomel region bordering Ukraine.
• On August 25, it became known that the Belarusian armed forces were deploying a significant number of personnel to the border with Ukraine under the guise of exercises. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry called for an end to the unfriendly actions.
• The border with the Republic of Belarus in the Zhytomyr region is 'completely sewn up' and the fortifications are ready.