Some said it must be 1943, others said 1944 or even 1945…
In reality, it seems like we're somewhere in the early period of 1938. Ahead, we can still expect the 'Munich Agreement' and everything else that followed it.
There are many Chamberlains and Deladiers in the modern world, but no Churchills in the relevant positions. As you understand, this is not just about us, but about a global threat. Of course, it can still be prevented. But every day it will become more difficult.
Perhaps it's not advisable to discuss such matters publicly. Maybe. But a different logic has prevailed: staying silent means not preparing. It's time to prepare, and not just for Ukrainians.
Will everything unfold exactly according to this scenario? Not necessarily.
Despite similarities between Putin's Russia and Nazi Germany, Russia has never been, is not, and will never become the Third Reich in terms of its organizational level and internal strength. The Moscow state is a fragile, diverse, low-tech entity with a huge heap of contradictions at its core. Its stability is only bolstered by successes in external expansion. Once these successes fade, serious internal problems will arise. As I recently wrote, China will act according to the level of unpreparedness of the USA and NATO. And that's it. They are still watching closely.
The world can still be saved. Ukrainians are setting an example. But even we are not exploiting all the weaknesses of the enemy. Not to mention our Western allies. There is still time. While there is still time.
About the Author: Mykhailo Basarab, Political Scientist.
The editors do not always endorse the opinions expressed by the blog authors.