Hungary, Slovakia, India should brace themselves — secondary sanctions are coming

This is according to the Resurgam, a Telegram channel offering expert insights on international politics.

The Resurgam’s contributors say they are firmly convinced that secondary sanctions targeting third countries that continue buying Russian energy will be introduced. Whether in fewer than 50 days or slightly later, the direction is clear: the sanctions are coming.

Resurgam writes that all the conditions for such a move have been met. At this stage, the U.S. sees no value in maintaining any form of partnership with Moscow — not when the Kremlin is offering Washington less than what it has already secured from Brussels.

What conditions have been fulfilled?

1. The failure of efforts to deliver energy gains to Trump.
   According to Resurgam, attempts by special envoy Witkoff to extract economic benefits for Trump have collapsed. Witkoff has shifted his messaging, now saying that a peace deal over Ukraine might be achieved by the end of Trump’s potential second term — a notable retreat from earlier claims that such an agreement was imminent. This shift, Resurgam argues, marks a political surrender.
2. The EU has created a defensive financial firewall.
   The channel previously explained how the finalization of EU defense funds aligned closely with the U.S. decision to approve significant arms sales to Ukraine. According to Resurgam, the American defense sector cannot ignore the capital now flowing through Brussels.
3. Brussels resisted Chinese pressure.
   Last week, Resurgam notes, the EU stood its ground in the face of China’s dual strategy of economic threats and trade incentives — a clear signal of the bloc’s growing strategic independence.
4. The U.S. and EU signed a major trade agreement.
   This, Resurgam argues, was the final condition. Until now, the Biden administration used its “deliberations” on how to respond to Russia as leverage in the EU trade talks. With the deal now signed, that leverage is no longer needed — and action is likely to follow.

The heart of the deal: $250 billion in U.S. energy

As part of the agreement, the European Commission pledged to purchase $250 billion worth of U.S. energy annually — a massive commitment given that the EU’s total energy imports range from $380 to $420 billion, much of which is already tied up in long-term contracts with Norway, Qatar, and others.

Still, Resurgam points to this as a bold, strategic move from Brussels — one that hints at a three-part communications strategy now taking shape.

1. Phase one: Clearing the EU market with U.S. help.
   According to Resurgam, the European Commission will soon tell Washington that countries like Hungary, Slovakia, Spain, and Greece still purchase Russian energy. To boost U.S. imports, those markets must be cleared — and the most effective way is through secondary sanctions or the credible threat of tariffs. This shift could open $20 billion in additional imports, raising the U.S. total to $80–100 billion. Brussels is also exploring legal options for breaking long-term contracts with Russian suppliers without facing lawsuits. U.S. secondary sanctions would provide the perfect legal basis to invoke force majeure.
2. Phase two: Cracking down on Russia’s backdoor via India.
   The second phase, Resurgam says, will focus on India’s role in helping Russia bypass sanctions. New Delhi continues to import large volumes of discounted Russian crude, refine it, and export finished petroleum products to the EU. Brussels could argue that limiting Russian oil to India would free up space for more U.S. imports. Since Trump has yet to strike a trade deal with India, secondary sanctions could become a useful pressure tool. But even this won't be enough to reach the $250 billion mark.
3. Phase three: Offsetting with arms and military services.
   Finally, Resurgam anticipates that Brussels will make this pitch to Washington: “We’ve significantly increased U.S. energy imports, but current market conditions won’t let us hit $250 billion right away. To make up the difference, we’re prepared to purchase critical weapons and services for Ukraine — worth billions of dollars.” Conveniently, this type of spending is already baked into the new trade agreement.

In sum, analysts conclude that the trade deal has now set the stage. The next step — pressure on third-party buyers of Russian energy — is just a matter of timing. Hungary, Slovakia, and India, the post warns, should prepare for what’s coming.