Have Ukrainian weapon production rates changed, and what is the impact of U.S. aid halt? Serhiy Zgurets' column

Frontline update

Let me start with what is happening on the front line, in particular in the Pokrovsk direction, where the Russian advance has been suspended almost along its entire length, but the Russian attacks are, of course, continuing. Exactly a week ago, last Wednesday, we talked about how the soldiers with Ukraine's 25th separate airborne brigade liberated the village of Kotlyne.

Earlier, we talked about the liberation of Pishchane, which is on the western flank of the Pokrovsk direction. And today another area has been added to these blue sites.

Ukraine Russia war live map, February 21-28, Photo: Espreso

I would even mention that, in addition to the well-known units, Ukraine's 425th Skala assault regiment, the 25th Brigade, and the new brigades are already gaining combat experience and are operating quite effectively. These are the 153rd Brigade and the 155th Brigade. In fact, these changes are taking place on the western flank of the Pokrovsk direction, and they are quite positive. Of course, the dynamics may be different, but in any case, we record it as positive changes in this area of the front. 

Another positive change that was noted by the DeepState OSINT project, as well as the liberation of Uspenivka, is the actions in another direction — around Kupiansk. We know that Russian troops are trying to expand their footholds on the western bank of the Oskil River.

There are several areas above Kupiansk where Russian troops are trying to advance from Dvorichna, from Novomlynsk towards Fyholivka. 

Russian units were driven out of Zakhidne. Zakhidne is another bridgehead that they tried to hold on the western bank of the Oskil River.

And in fact, there is a certain change in the dynamics now due to the use of Ukrainian troops to reduce the Russian footholds on the western bank of the Oskil River. Of course, all these efforts require weapons, equipment and skills of Ukrainian soldiers. And when we talk about weapons, I will mention certain data announced by Ukrainian officials.

Pace of Ukrainian weapons production

Recently, Ukraine’s Prime Minister Shmyhal discussed the progress in Ukraine’s weapons production, noting that the country now produces about a third of the weapons required on the battlefield.

While Shmyhal mentioned one-third, President Zelenskyy spoke of 40%, but these general figures are difficult to directly correlate with the battlefield situation. Some weapons are unique, while others are more common, making precise comparisons challenging. However, as Shmyhal emphasized, the goal is to increase arms production to meet 50% of the battlefield needs.

Shmyhal also mentioned that, over the past two years, artillery production has tripled, the production of anti-tank weapons has doubled, and ammunition production has also doubled. While he didn't provide specific numbers, he emphasized the significant increase in these areas.

Regarding ammunition, Shmyhal highlighted that national capabilities currently supply a large percentage of artillery ammunition, particularly 105-caliber and 120-caliber shells, all produced domestically in Ukraine.

However, when it comes to NATO-standard 155-caliber ammunition, the production process is slower. Although it is planned to manufacture this type of ammunition on Ukrainian soil, this will depend on the supply of key components from international partners.

There are some noteworthy details about artillery production: the Prime Minister stated that Ukraine will be able to meet 100% of its artillery needs with domestic production this year. This achievement is largely due to the Ukrainian-made Bohdana self-propelled artillery system and the production of 120-mm mortars.

Regarding the Bohdana self-propelled artillery systems, 154 units were manufactured last year. This production exceeds that of European manufacturers, including the French Nexter, Caesar, the German-made Panzerhaubitze 2000 and RSH 155 by KNDS Deutschland, as well as the Polish Krab.

In fact, Ukraine is producing more than these three countries combined. At this rate, with 154 vehicles produced last year, a new self-propelled artillery system is coming off the production line every two to three days.

An important nuance here is that all the Western self-propelled artillery systems currently in service with Ukraine are facing issues with the exhaustion of their barrels and guns. Due to the intense pace of combat operations, there is a significant need to replace these barrels, but the supply of American, British, and German-made barrels is currently limited.

This shortage is affecting the effectiveness of these self-propelled artillery systems.

On the Ukrainian side, there is a robust domestic production facility that has established a high rate of barrel production. This facility is technologically advanced, though its exact location and name are not going to be disclosed for obvious reasons.

There is even a possibility that this Ukrainian enterprise could begin producing barrels for foreign self-propelled artillery systems used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. If this agreement is reached and the process is implemented — negotiations are already underway — it would provide a significant boost to Ukraine's artillery capabilities on the battlefield.

Impact of U.S. aid restrictions

How do American restrictions affect or will affect the situation at the front, and what conclusions should we draw from this? 

Blackmail by the United States, blackmail with weapons, blackmail with intelligence continues. 

Valentyn Badrak, director of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies and co-founder of the Defense Information Consortium, noted what conclusions should be drawn to avoid such blackmail in the future. 

"Certain conclusions were already drawn, let's say, at the beginning of 2023, because, unfortunately, the years 2019-2022 were lost for the defense industry. However, even before the war, we estimated that about 6-8% of the weapon systems Ukraine had already mastered production of and could offer to its army. Now, I am very cautious about claiming 40% or even 30%. In my view, we have definitely reached about a quarter of the capabilities — about a quarter of the needs that Ukrainian industry is capable of meeting. Of course, this is considering investments and projects such as the Danish and Norwegian models, which help us secure resources and produce equipment. Certain types of equipment are also, indeed, unique. For example, electronic warfare systems — especially tactical electronic warfare — are so unique that Ukraine is recognized as being ahead of nearly the entire world," he said.

Part of the achievements can also be attributed to unmanned systems.

"Let me remind you that just recently, Defense Minister Ruslan Umerov discussed the efforts and implementation of a new doctrine related to creating a gray buffer zone of total destruction. He mentioned a range of 10-15 kilometers. I want to remind you that at the beginning of the war, we had several brainstorming sessions and, even before the large-scale invasion, were in discussions with experts and industrialists about creating a 20-50 kilometer zone of total destruction. In fact, those calculations and ideas we discussed are now being put into action three years later, around the middle of 2024. This is especially true with the introduction of massive bombers like Nemesis and similar systems onto the battlefield — these are quadcopter-type drones capable of carrying warheads of 10 kilograms or more and striking targets up to 20+ kilometers from the contact line," he said.

Valentyn Badrak pointed out that in certain areas, Russian troops were forced to push their equipment back by 20 kilometers, which he considered a significant achievement.

“This achievement shows that even a temporary suspension of American aid will not have a major impact on the front. As long as European countries continue to pursue their goals of replacing the United States, the front will remain relatively stable. And, by the way, this could be an important factor, especially considering that I view the NATO summit in June as a key marker. For some reason, it seems to me that this political and geopolitical confrontation could last until the NATO summit. Either NATO will disintegrate, or Trump will have to overhaul his entire team and reassess his approach. I wouldn’t call Trump an outright renegade, because much of what he does that is destructive is driven by his personality, particularly his desire to end the war at any cost. His current actions, like halting aid and intelligence, especially to hinder Ukraine’s ability to conduct precise diplomatic strikes, seem to be aimed at personally targeting Zelenskyy. I believe he would be pleased to see hundreds, maybe even thousands, of Ukrainians killed, and he would take satisfaction in the power outage, as it would immediately provide him with an opportunity to blame Zelenskyy personally for it,” Badrak said.

At the same time, he suggests that Trump's policy might be a temporary phenomenon.

“However, what’s important is that whether this phenomenon lasts or not, it has already weakened the West quite significantly. Interestingly, some Western countries, particularly European NATO members, have even ceased sharing information with Trump’s administration. They are preparing for a complete reset of their defense policies. For Ukraine, this represents a very significant window of opportunity. Not only is it a matter of honor for Europe, but it’s also crucial for Ukraine to defend itself at this pivotal moment against Putin’s aggression,” he said.

The military expert also elaborated on how Ukraine could capitalize on this shift. He discussed potential areas and projects where Ukraine could strengthen its cooperation.

“First and foremost, air and missile defense is a key area. We know that new systems are being developed in Europe to replace the Patriot. For example, France and Italy have already produced a completely new SAMP/T model, one of which is already in Ukraine. This represents a completely new situation. Next, of course, is including Ukraine in missile programs, as Ukraine has expertise in ballistic missiles. European countries, as we know, lacked their own ballistic missiles because they relied on American ones. There are significant opportunities for Ukraine to produce them, and some projects have already been launched. This includes the production of anti-aircraft missiles in collaboration with Italian companies MBDA Italy and Leonardo. There is also work with Thales and the Belgian branch on a small interceptor missile. Additionally, Lithuanian investments could ensure serious production of small, compact cruise missiles like Peklo and Palianytsia, along with a whole family of them. Furthermore, scaling up missile production with Romania, based on the R-360 Neptune, is a very real possibility. These are already surface-to-surface cruise missiles. I think building a missile shield and missile sword should be our top priorities,” he said.

Secondly, Valentyn Badrak emphasized that Ukraine could join the MLRS production.

“We know that Europe is moving from the American Himars to EuroPULS, which is based on Israeli MLRS technology. It would be very important for Ukraine to participate in such programs as well. Of course, ammunition and short-range weapons such as self-propelled mortars and self-propelled anti-tank missile systems are crucial. It’s said that Ukraine could meet 100% of its artillery needs, but I believe that there cannot be too many of artillery shells. When we analyze the battles of 2024, they were all combined battles in which unmanned systems were used at about 50-70%. However, artillery, mortars, and other weapons also played an essential role. In combination, they allowed us to effectively deter the enemy, which is very important. One more extraordinary aspect is Europe's ability to purchase intelligence information as a service. They may also have solutions to replace Starlink services, which is something worth exploring.

I also believe it would be beneficial if Europe could collaborate with the United States on the purchase of weapons for Ukraine, aligning efforts and ensuring stronger support,” he concluded.

“Since Europe has not severed ties with the United States, there is still a possibility, and Trump has suggested that they would buy from him. I would support Europe agreeing to purchase Patriot missiles, NASAMS missiles, and ballistic missiles — specifically the Precision Strike Missile, which already has a range of 500 kilometers. We know that Lockheed Martin was set to produce nearly 4,000 missiles in 2024 under three contracts. It seems to me that Europe could buy at least a thousand of these missiles, as the 800 billion euro program announced by Ursula von der Leyen for the next 5-6 years is exactly the kind of funding that could significantly strengthen Ukraine. I believe Trump will not fully sever ties with Europe, even though he has encouraged the restoration of European power. Just as he wanted to make America great again, he is, in fact, helping to make Europe great again,” said Valentyn Badrak.

However, he believes Trump’s decision to cut off U.S. aid to Ukraine is temporary.

“And Ukraine is here with Europe, because Europe needs missiles that can be made together, and personnel, and the Ukrainian army is the largest, most powerful in Europe. This is an indisputable fact, and our personnel can replace the American contingent in the future. Ultimately, the joint development of these long-range weapons is very important. At the same time, we need to scale up drones. Let me remind you that there is a desire to quadruple the number of long-range drones. Ukrainian officials have recently stated this, and this may allow us to gain technological and powerful advantages over the enemy, even if the U.S. aid is temporarily suspended. I think it is still a temporary suspension, not a final decision of the United States,” said Valentyn Badrak, director of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, co-founder of the Defense Information Consortium.