For Putin, war is the key to his survival, says former diplomat

This view was expressed by diplomat Volodymyr Ohryzko during an interview on Espreso TV with Studio West host Anton Borkovsky.

“When it comes to Kremlin logic, it’s not about Lavrov, or Medinsky, or Shoigu, or Medvedev — it’s about no one, because this is an absolute monarchy where everything is decided by one man, and everyone else is his vassal. Putin decides what will happen, how, when, and whether it will happen at all. So we have to look at how he views the situation. Let’s sit in his chair and ask — what does ending the war mean for him? It means he’ll have to explain to his zombified, savage population what exactly he achieved by sacrificing a million lives and barely gaining a foothold in two regions — which he didn’t even fully capture. Did he demilitarize Ukraine? Force it into neutrality? Secure the status of the Russian language? Of course not. Hopefully, we will respond to these manipulations clearly and calmly — with a firm no. So what, then, does he present to his people? How does he explain that his dramatic statement on the night of February 24, 2022, amounted to nothing?”

Ohryzko added that one must also consider how Putin could convert Russia’s militarized economy to a civilian one if the war ends. He recalled the collapse of the military-industrial complex after the fall of the USSR — when weapons factories suddenly became obsolete. “Right now, they produce 1,000 drones, they’re destroyed, and another 1,000 are needed the next day. But what happens when the demand disappears? These factories will shut down.”

“And what about the war criminals returning home — the ones who will no longer kill Ukrainians, but instead their fellow villagers? I recently saw a horrifying video showing how two so-called ‘refuseniks’ were forced into a human wave assault. This is a barbaric, savage, inhuman system. And it will return — fast — and bring its cruelty back into Russia itself. What can Putin do about it? Can he stop it? And what if Kadyrov dies tomorrow? What happens to that region? Will it declare independence from Moscow? Could Moscow stop it? No, it won’t be able to do anything,” the diplomat warned.

In his view, as long as the war drags on, there is still some degree of control over Russia. But once the war ends, the risks — both foreign and domestic — will spike. “Why will external risks rise? Because no one plans to lift sanctions on Russia. No one intends to abandon Ukraine. That’s the reality Putin will face for a long time — likely years, if Russia even survives that long. Internally, there will be turmoil — the kind that could erupt overnight. For Putin, war is the guarantee of his continued existence — like a prison boss ruling over what Russia has now become. Without war, the threats are endless. That’s why he needs the war to go on, under any pretext — lying to Trump, claiming Ukraine doesn’t want to negotiate,” Ohryzko concluded.