Everything is to be decided in Europe and by Europe

Holman Jenkins: "Joe Biden has been pro-Ukraine only in comparison to the GOP renegades. ... A frozen, Korea-style outcome may have been the lightly spoken Biden aim all along. Now comes a Washington Post report detailing a “secret” Donald Trump plan that strikes fundamentally the same note. He wants outcomes that glorify Mr. Trump.

In this situation, Mr. Trump, it’s a slight oversimplification to say, is high-risk and high-reward and Mr. Biden is low-risk and low-reward. In fact, it’s hard to see much good happening either way.

With Mr. Trump, there’s a slight chance of some out-of-left-field deal, but your main expectation should be very similar whoever’s elected: half-baked drift unless and until the Russians mount a competent threat to capture Kyiv, then a panicked, unpredictable response. ...I would advise Ukraine’s European friends to be ready for an extended period in which the U.S. is unable to provide leadership amid the rising dangers of the world."

Jenkins said nothing new: Republicans and Democrats, Trump and Biden are equally pro-Ukrainian and equally anti-Ukrainian. The only difference is in the methods they choose to implement their own vision of the situation.

But it's not like the methods are better or worse for us in each case.

The main conclusion is that most analysts now agree that the war will drag on. And they also agree that America has withdrawn from the leading role in determining the geopolitical landscape on the European continent. At least, for a while.

So, everything will be decided in Europe and Europe will be the one to decide. Biden has put global leadership on an imaginary table, not even with Trump's consent, but with Trump's pushing: come and take it, whoever wants it and can handle it. And Macron and Scholz are confidently but slowly approaching this table: the idea of European leadership is appealing to both of them (as the idea of American leadership in Europe has long irritated both of them, at least).

And yes, in practical terms, this means that our future and our survival now officially depend on two things: consistent and large-scale support from Europe, and on the eventual establishment of our own defense industry (yes, this also means harsh punishment for corruption at least in the defense sector, but the rest can be almost ignored for now).

Source

About the author. Oleksiy Holobutskyi, political scientist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.